NFL Picks Week 11: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorNovember 14, 2017

Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman (26) runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during an NFL football game, Sunday, November 12, 2017, in Atlanta. The Falcons won 27-7. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)
Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The Carolina Panthers closed the door on the 10th week of the NFL season with a 45-21 win over the Miami Dolphins on Monday night.

At this point, the playoff pictures are starting to take shape. Some teams have their sights set on home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs (e.g. the Philadelphia Eagles), while many others are just looking for a place at the table (e.g. the mess of four-and five-win teams in the AFC).

Here's a look at the Week 11 slate, with picks for each game. All odds are via OddsShark, and the game props are courtesy of OddsChecker.

Then you'll find four best bets at the tail end.

          

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44 O/U)

Game Prop Pick: Race to 20 Points (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Score Pick: Steelers 27, Titans 17

                     

Detroit Lions (-3, 42 O/U) at Chicago Bears

Game Prop Pick: Winning Margin (Bears: 1-6)

Score Pick: Bears 17, Lions 13

                       

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 44.5 O/U) at New York Giants

Game Prop Pick: Winning Margin (Chiefs: 14-plus)

Score Pick: Chiefs 38, Giants 17

               

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Game Prop Pick: None Available

Score Pick: Buccaneers 24, Dolphins 17

                 

Baltimore Ravens (-2, 38 O/U) at Green Bay Packers

Game Prop Pick: Total Points (Under 34)

Score Pick: Packers 20, Ravens 10

                   

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 46.5 O/U)

Game Prop Pick: Total Touchdowns (Over 6)

Score Pick: Rams 31, Vikings 24

                         

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Houston Texans

Game Prop Pick: Total Houston Texans Points (Under 21)

Score Pick: Cardinals 24, Texans 14

                                      

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 37.5 O/U) at Cleveland Browns

Game Prop Pick: Total Touchdowns (Under 5)

Score Pick: Jaguars 13, Browns 10

                                                 

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51 O/U)

Game Prop Pick: Winning Margin (Saints: 14-plus)

Score Pick: Saints 31, Redskins 17

              

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 43.5 O/U)

Game Prop Pick: Total Points (Over 46)

Score Pick: Chargers 27, Bills 20

                                   

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 40 O/U)

Game Prop Pick: Total Touchdowns (Under 5)

Score Pick: Broncos 16, Bengals 10

                                                           

New England Patriots (-6.5, 52 O/U) vs. Oakland Raiders (in Mexico City)

Game Prop Pick: Total Touchdowns (Over 6)

Score Pick: Raiders 28, Patriots 27

                                       

Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48 O/U) at Dallas Cowboys

Game Prop Pick: Winning Margin (Eagles 7-12)

Score Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 16

              

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45 O/U)

Game Prop Pick: Total Atlanta Falcons Points (Over 28)

Score Pick: Falcons 34, Seahawks 31

                  

Best Bet: Favorite

The New York Giants have given up 82 points in their last two games. First they allowed 51 to the Los Angeles Rams. Yes, the Rams could make a case for being the best offensive team in football, but L.A. still scored 18.1 more points than their current average.

Then New York allowed 31 to the San Francisco 49ers, or one more point than San Francisco scored in their previous three games.

Now the Giants are playing host to a Kansas City Chiefs team that has one of the best quarterbacks in football this year (Alex Smith), arguably the best tight end (Travis Kelce), a top-line running back (Kareem Hunt) and a speed demon at wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) who is a mismatch nightmare for any team.

The Giants defense has not played up to expectations this year due to a variety of factors, and with the team playing out the string, their remaining games could get very ugly. Expect Sunday's game to be no contest.

        

Best Bet: Underdog

Yes, Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Hundley did not look good in his first three pro games but cut him some slack: He played three teams with a combined win-loss record of 19-8, including two of the best defensive squads in the NFL (the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints). That's a tough trial by fire.

Hundley bounced back with a solid performance against the Chicago Bears, completing 72 percent of his passes and tossing a touchdown to wide receiver Davante Adams in an impressive 23-16 road victory.

The opposing defense is stout on Sunday in the Baltimore Ravens, but their offense has sputtered on and off all season and has had many troubles throwing the ball (they rank last in yards per attempt at 5.3). Hundley shouldn't have to do too much to lead his team to a win.

In front of the raucous Lambeau Field crowd, look for the Packers to win outright as the home underdog in a low-scoring game.

            

Best Bet: Over

Last season, the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks scored a combined 106 points in their two games. This year is a bit different because the Falcons offense has struggled, but the Seahawks defense may sorely miss cornerback Richard Sherman, who is out for the year with a torn Achilles.

Atlanta's offense showed flashes of its old self in a 27-7 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, and that was largely without running back Devonta Freeman, who suffered a concussion early in the contest.

Unfortunately, Freeman is likely sitting out this week, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. However, backup Tevin Coleman is capable of carrying the workload, as he's rushed for 4.6 yards per carry during his three-year career. He's also an adept pass-catcher, hauling in 50 passes for 638 yards and five scores.

On the flip side, the Seattle Seahawks have had trouble running the ball all year. Thankfully for them, their passing game hasn't missed a beat, as quarterback Russell Wilson has led the team to a 6-3 record and 23.4 points per game.

This should be the game of the week. Look for it to go well over the total in a Ryan vs. Wilson shootout.

                   

Best Bet: Under

The Cleveland Browns may be winless, but their run defense is the best in the league by a wide margin. They only allow 3.1 yards per carry, and that is well clear of the second-best team (Minnesota Vikings, 3.4).

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a run-first team, although they went away from that strategy after Leonard Fournette couldn't get much going on the ground against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Still, the run game is the Jags' strength, and it's hard to envision them having too much success against this stout Cleveland front.

Losing linebacker Jamie Collins to a torn MCL is a huge blow for the Browns, undoubtedly. But the team still has run-stopping talent in the front seven, namely nose tackle Danny Shelton. They'll slow down the Jags in what should be a rock fight in Cleveland.

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