Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2017

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - NOVEMBER 11:  Brandon Wimbush #7 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish hands off to Josh Adams #33 during a game against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium on November 11, 2017 in Miami Gardens, Florida.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame once beat the Navy Midshipmen an astounding 43 times in a row. But the Midshipmen upset the Irish last year, and they're 4-6 straight up and 6-4 against the spread over the last 10 meetings. Navy shoots for a repeat performance Saturday afternoon in South Bend.

      

College football point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 18.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 42.2-26.6 Fighting Irish (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Navy Midshipmen can cover the spread

The Midshipmen just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 43-40 victory over SMU last week. Navy drove the opening possession of the game 73 yards to a touchdown and led 34-11 at halftime. The Midshipmen then allowed the Mustangs to rally and tie the score at 40-40 with three minutes to go but drove 78 yards and kicked a game-winning field goal on the final play to escape what might have been a crushing defeat.

On the day, Navy ran the ball 72 times for 559 yards and won time of possession by a margin of 38-22. The Midshipmen have now outrushed each of their nine opponents this season.

Navy started 5-0 this season, then lost three straight. But all three of those losses came by one score or less. The Midshipmen are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.

      

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are looking to bounce back this week after getting bounced at Miami last week 41-8. Notre Dame carried a seven-game winning streak into Hard Rock Stadium but came up totally empty in one of the more puzzling performances in college football this season.

Notre Dame hit the 30-point mark seven times in a row during its winning streak, and the 40-point mark four times. Prior to last week, the Irish had also outgained five opponents in a row and outrushed seven foes in a row.

At 8-2 overall, Notre Dame is now out of the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff but could still make a New Year's Day bowl game.

      

Smart pick

Notre Dame thought it had a shot at the CFP, but that's all done now. And a trouncing like last week's can be hard to rebound from. Navy, meanwhile, didn't just keep last year's meeting with the Irish close; it ran the ball for 320 yards and won 28-27. Smart money here takes the points with the Midshipmen.

      

College football betting trends

Navy is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games on the road against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games after a loss.

The total has gone over in four of Notre Dame's last five games at home in November.

       

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.