Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2017

Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm sets back to pass before an NCAA college football game against Auburn on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

The Georgia Bulldogs own seven wins in a row in the rivalry with the Kentucky Wildcats, going 5-2 against the spread in the process. But they're also coming off a demoralizing defeat. How will a heavily favored Georgia react when it takes on the bowl-bound Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon?

       

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 24-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 41.0-18.3 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Kentucky Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats just bounced back from that tough loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago to beat Vanderbilt last week 44-21. Kentucky spotted the Commodores the game's first seven points, then scored the next 34 to take control, on its way toward the outright victory as a three-point underdog.

On the day, the Wildcats outgained Vandy 427-368, outrushed the Commodores 232-60, held a 33-27 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 4-1. Kentucky has now outrushed each of its last three opponents and seven of 10 foes this season.

At 7-3 overall, the Wildcats have an outside shot at their first 10-win season in 40 years.

      

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs are hoping to bounce back this week after falling hard at Auburn last week 40-17. UGA drove the opening possession of the game 70 yards to a touchdown but gave up the next 30 points in a shocking performance from what was the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff standings.

Georgia was still in the game early in the third quarter when a fumbled punt and a personal-foul penalty led to 14 quick Tigers points. Until last week, the Bulldogs had outgained and outrushed each of their first nine opponents this season.

Even with that loss, Georgia, which has already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game, is still in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff. But it has to win out, maybe convincingly, starting with this week's contest.

      

Smart pick

Maybe the Bulldogs aren't as good as the pollsters thought. Maybe they took advantage of a weak schedule. Whatever the case, the spread on this game seems inflated. Georgia is still probably going to win outright, but the smart money takes the points with Kentucky.

      

College football betting trends

Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against Georgia.

Georgia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games in Week 12.

Kentucky is 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in November.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.