NASCAR Chase Patrol: "Midterm Grades" for Top 12 Sprint Cup Contenders

We've reached the halfway point of the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship, and it's shaping up as a five driver fight for the title. While the battle began with 12 contenders, the Chase field has dwindled race after race with challengers falling by the wayside.

Perennial stars have made their presence known so far, occupying the top spots, while surprise faces have seen their magic fading away. Still, a lot is on the line for the Top 12, ranging from points, money, and for some lucky drivers, the prestigious Sprint Cup championship trophy.

While some fans and media outlets are already declaring the Chase as won by a particular three-time titlist named Jimmie Johnson, five races remain in which the unexpected may occur. Martinsville, Talladega, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead-Miami are not the easiest of hurdles to attack and leap over en route to stock car immortality.

To say the least, whoever wins this year's championship will surely earn it. Will it be a Hendrick Motorsports battle for the Cup, or will an outsider walk into town to engage in a lengthy gunfight in NASCAR-Ville? Only time will tell.

In the meantime, here's a look at this year's Chase field with observations, expectations, and a "midterm" grade with their performance thus far. Between Martinsville and Homestead-Miami, one thing is certain: there'll be a whole lotta shaking goin' on!

No. 12: Brian Vickers

Chase Summary

What was going to be this year's Cinderella story in NASCAR has turned into an abysmal nightmare for 25-year-old Brian Vickers. After tallying 10 straight Top-15 finishes from the 400-miler at Daytona in July, to the second Loudon race, the No. 83 Red Bull Toyota team befell to a myriad of misfortunes in the Chase.

Yes, Vickers finished a lead-lap 18th place in the AAA 400 at Dover, although he placed distantly behind the title contenders. Then came the month of October, which has dealt a wicked blow to his title chances.

Case in point: he has three consecutive finishes of 29th or worse since the race at the Monster Mile. Kansas in particular was tough, dealing the No. 83 team with a 37th place result due to an engine failure. It didn't get better at Auto Club and Lowe's when TRB simply missed the set-up, and finished 29th and 34th.

Those are hardly the numbers and performances that this team compiled earlier in the season that landed them the final spot in the Chase field. That said, 2009 has been a remarkable story for Vickers, and crew chief Ryan Pemberton, who'll be striving for more in 2010. They'll look back at this year's Chase in the future knowing that it laid the foundation of success with this organization.

What To Expect

With Vickers and company in the 12th position in points, all they can really do is prepare for next year by experimenting with set-up variables, as well as playing the spoiler for race victories as this season winds down.

Martinsville will be an exercise in patience for BV, as it is traditionally not a kind track to the '03 Nationwide Series champ with a single Top 10 to boot. Talladega has been one of his better tracks, and probably his last shot at victory for the year, as Dale Jr. and Jimmie Johnson fans "fondly" remember this young man's first series win three years ago.

The rest of the Chase races are toss-ups at Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead. Anything goes for this team, and that's the kind of attitude this team carried in 2009. Simply put, they'll be fun to watch...if they can get their stride and consistency back together.

First Five Finishes: 11th, 18th, 37th, 29th, and 34th

Midterm Chase Grade: C+

No. 11: Denny Hamlin

Chase Summary

Naturally when the Chase of '09 began, Denny Hamlin asserted himself as the man to beat for the title. Why not? It's the first thought that a driver has when they find themselves in position for a championship.

Save for his gaffe at Indy, Hamlin was one of the hottest drivers heading into the playoffs with eight Top-10 finishes in a nine race stretch. When he won the cutoff race at Richmond, he declared himself as the title favorite.

Much like what happened to Vickers, the No. 11 FedEx Toyota team encountered inconsistency in the Chase. There's some bright spots such as his runner-up finish to Mark Martin in the postseason opener at Loudon, and a fifth-place in Kansas earlier this month.

Then there's the disappointing results at Dover, Auto Club, and Lowe's, which have virtually sealed his fate as just a face in the Top 12. Dover continued to be a house of horrors for the '06 Rookie of the Year, struggling with a 22nd finish.

Auto Club was the kiss of death, in which Hamlin admitted that his late-race restart tangle with Juan Pablo Montoya cost him any chance at winning the Cup. Since that race, it seems like the 28-year-old has lost his swagger, a recurring quality that has been something of a sore spot for this otherwise sensational racer.

There were some expectations for Hamlin to win it all, considering that he dubbed himself as the man to beat. Performance wise, he has shown what he is capable of, but the finishes have been lacking.

What To Expect

Hamlin is his hardest critic and his biggest fan, which makes the Radford, VA native an interesting figure. That said, he can still battle for a Top-10 point finish, as well as victories in the last five races.

Martinsville and Phoenix are his best opportunities for wins, as these tracks seem to suit his driving style as polished, but aggressive. Talladega, Texas, and Homestead are middling, but like Vickers, anything can go with the No. 11 team down the stretch.

Probably the best news that Hamlin has is that he only has to deal with Brad Keselowski just once more in the Cup side when the series heads to Talladega. The bad news? Well, BK will be giving Hamlin fits full-time starting next year.

First Five Finishes: 2nd, 22nd, 5th, 37th, and 42nd

Midterm Chase Grade: C-

No. 10: Carl Edwards

Chase Summary

Carl Edwards has to feel like the over-hyped movie of the summer that proved to be a box office bust. Leading up to the season, many media prognosticators felt that he was the favorite for the championship. He was the series leader in victories last year with nine wins, including three triumphs in the Chase.

Whether it's Chevrolet dominance, or the team missing a step or two in its program, Edwards and the No. 99 AFLAC Ford crew are hardly the force that gave Jimmie Johnson and Team 48 some fits down the stretch.

Last year, "Cousin Carl" compiled a 9.5 average finish, which spoke contender quality. This year, however, has been a bust, averaging a finish of 14.4. When fans and critics want to understand why he has not won at all in 2009, that number speaks volumes.

The Chase has been a microcosm of his '09 campaign as a middling competitor who seems to be unnoticed amidst the stories of the postseason. About the only headline stories that Edwards has made is his runner-up position in the Nationwide Series, and his Frisbee ordeal in August.

Nary a mention was made about Edwards at Loudon and Dover, quietly placing 17th and 11th. He made a bit of noise at Kansas and Auto Club, finishing in 10th and sixth before engine problems sidelined the No. 99 team to 39th at Lowe's.

What To Expect

It's safe to say that "Victory Watch" is waning down for Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne. In the final five races of 2008, he averaged a 7.2 finish, with Talladega being his only mulligan with a 29th result.

Past races at Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead have been very good to the No. 99 team, with the 30-year-old winning at the Lone Star State, and the season finale. At this juncture, this Roush-Fenway Racer would love to win a race, simple as that.

First Five Finishes: 17th, 11th, 10th, 6th, and 39th

Midterm Chase Grade: C+

No. 9: Kasey Kahne

Chase Summary

It's been that kind of year for Kasey Kahne and the No. 9 Budweiser team, showing flashes of brilliance along the way, paired with hard luck races. Throughout the regular season, Kahne complained about the underachievement of his organization, even going so far as to using the press to vent his frustration at the midway point of the year.

Since then, the team has stepped it up with solid finishes, including a victory at Infineon and Atlanta. Unfortunately for Kahne, only a few mulligans are allowed in the Chase before a hefty deficit builds between himself and the points leader.

Save for equipment problems at Loudon, and a late-race crash at Auto Club, the Bud team has been solid. Kahne placed eight, sixth, and third at Dover, Kansas, and Lowe's, performances that would have seen the No. 9 much closer to the top of the Chase rather than a ninth-place points position.

What To Expect

Let's just say that Kahne and crew chief Kenny Francis hope that history will not repeat itself down the stretch like it did last season. As a virtual non-factor in the last five races of 2008, and a title out of grasp for this team in 2009, they could vie for, at best, seventh place in points.

Texas and Homestead-Miami are most likely where Kahne will contend for victories, with this team performing well at intermediate tracks. Martinsville, Talladega, and Phoenix will be this team's biggest tests before season's end.

First Five Finishes: 38th, 8th, 6th, 34th, and 3rd

Midterm Chase Grade: B-

No. 8: Ryan Newman

Chase Summary

It's quite the accomplishment that Ryan Newman finds himself in the postseason racing for a Top-10 points finish. While they have not made too much noise yet in 2009, consistency has been the name of the No. 39's game.

Winless since the 2008 Daytona 500, Newman has at least redeemed himself from a three-year playoff drought by racing his way into the eighth spot at the halfway mark of the Chase.

Like Edwards, he has been somewhat in the shadows of the other perennial contenders. However, he only has one poor result in the playoffs with a 22nd result at Kansas. Otherwise, his finishes have been decent, placing seventh, 10th, 15th, and 11th at Loudon, Dover, Auto Club and Lowe's.

As ESPN's Ryan McGee pointed out on Saturday night's RaceCast, the Stewart-Haas program has probably lost a step or two, either because they ran out of steam, or that satellite team owner Rick Hendrick has given less resources and information down the stretch.

That said, overall, it has been a great season for Rocket Ryan. As for his Chase, it hasn't been great....just OK.

What To Expect

Newman is probably looking forward to Talladega, where he placed third in a controversial last-lap finish. A highly underrated restrictor plate racer, this 31-year-old Hoosier State native is licking his chops for the biggest wild card race for all the Chase contenders.

Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead are relatively fair tracks, as they suit his driving style, and allow for some paint trading to go on with the best of the business. Newman would love nothing more but to end his 20 month winless drought with a trip to Victory Lane at any of the final five venues.

First Five Finishes: 7th, 10th, 22nd, 15th, and 11th

Midterm Chase Grade: B-

No. 7: Greg Biffle

Chase Summary

It seems like Roush-Fenway Racing has been quiet since their quick start to 2009, when longtime driver Matt Kenseth and his No. 17 DeWalt Ford team won the Daytona 500 and the spring Auto Club race.

Greg Biffle has been RFR's shining spot in an otherwise abysmal year, at least for this team's high standards. With Kenseth out of the Chase, and Edwards making little progress, the 39-year-old Washington state native has compiled a so-so playoff run.

Biffle opened up the postseason with a ninth at Loudon, followed up with a 13th-place result at Dover, third at Kansas, 20th at Auto Club, and 16th at Lowe's. In past Chase playoffs, the No. 16 would be mathematically in contention for the Cup.

However, it's been the year of Hendrick Motorsports, which translates to the No. 16 3M Ford crew fighting for a Top-10 points finish.

What To Expect

Biffle hopes to finish off 2009 with a win in an otherwise confusing year. Sure, he's in the Chase, and has yet to truly use a mulligan in the playoffs. Then again, the last two races have not been too promising as far as making much headway to a Top-Five points finish.

It's hit or miss at Martinsville for Biffle, who has struggled in the past at the paperclip-shaped short track. Talladega, Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead-Miami are otherwise solid chances for checkered flags, and pride for a man who is capable of winning a title. He just needs to have that swagger and confidence he displayed in 2005.

First Five Finishes: 9th, 13th, 3rd, 20th, and 16th

Midterm Chase Grade: B-

No. 6: Juan Pablo Montoya

Chase Summary

Until Saturday night's disaster at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Juan Pablo Montoya emerged as the surprise contender for the title. Stories were being written about NASCAR crowning its first foreign champion, and perhaps it will happen with JPM.

Just not this year.

Montoya finds himself 195 markers from points leader Jimmie Johnson, about a two or three race margin. In essence, much like his peers, the Colombian is hoping for the No. 48 team to falter in a couple of races, while the No. 42 Target Chevy crew pounce on those opportunities with solid finishes.

Speaking of solid, that's one way to sum up his inaugural Chase experience, despite the hiccup at LMS. With finishes of third at Loudon and Auto Club, and fourth at Dover and Kansas, the former open-wheel icon found himself in the unlikely position as title spoiler.

While Montoya cost himself the Cup with a 35th showing on Saturday night at Lowe's, he and crew chief Brian Pattie have a lot to be proud of with this memorable 2009 season.

What To Expect

Mark my words: Montoya will definitely wind up in Victory Lane before 2009 is said and done.

Screw past statistics and how JPM is too much of an aggressive driver at the short tracks. Time and time again, the 34-year-old motorsports star has proven he knows how to drive a race car, as well as how to put on a good show.

Any of the remaining five tracks and races are possible candidates of Montoya's first oval-track victory, and his long-awaited second win of his career.

First Five Races: 3rd, 4th, 4th, 3rd, and 35th

Midterm Chase Grade: B+

No. 5: Kurt Busch

Chase Summary

As a result of his winning the 2004 Chase and being a Busch, NASCAR has found enough reason to send the 31-year-old Vegas native to jail.

Ok, not really. It's just a hilarious picture of him participating in NASCAR's Jail and Bail charity event from the past week. Admit it, it's about his most memorable picture since he hoisted the Cup trophy five years ago.

2009 has been a stellar, consistent year for Penske Championship Racing's stock car star, who has compiled a solid Chase. Sure, he's not in the same zip code as Johnson, Martin, and Gordon, but considering he's driving a Dodge, Busch has logged in five great races.

With his worst Chase finish coming at Kansas, the only thing separating Busch from the Hendrick boys are some stronger finishes, and perhaps a few wins.

All things considered, with Busch driving for an underdog manufacturer, and a crew chief in Pat Tryson departing for Michael Waltrip Racing next year, the No. 2 team's driver and crew has accomplished quite a lot in what could have been a tumultuous campaign.

What To Expect

It's no secret that if Busch finds himself with too much of a deficit to make up before the season finale, Tryson will depart early from Penske to start working on next year's program with MWR and driver Martin Truex, Jr.

Busch is still within mathematical distance of a title, although realistically, a Top-Five points finish is what the Miller Lite team should be aiming for. If he can avoid the over-aggression that has been Busch's baggage, look for some wins for the Blue Deuce.

First Five Races: 6th, 5th, 11th, 8th, and 10th

Midterm Chase Grade: B+

No. 4: Tony Stewart

Chase Summary

About the only man who can sympathize with Tony Stewart and his relinquishing of the points lead following the regular season is Jeff Gordon.

After building a nearly insurmountable margin between himself and Gordon following Richmond, Stewart relegated from the lead to a tie for third in points in the Chase. Since then, Smoke has been racing hard to regain that lead.

However, he's got his work cut out for him, having to outrace, and out duel, the Hendrick trio. All season long, HMS has been sharing info and set-up data with Stewart's operation, partly contributing to this team's tremendous season. Then again, a team with two sensational Hoosier natives doesn't hurt at all.

Save for middling finishes at Loudon and Lowe's, the Chase has been fairly successful for the No. 14 team. The two-time Cup champ placed ninth in Dover, followed up by a win at Kansas, and a fifth place result at Auto Club.

As mentioned with Newman, Hendrick probably caught on with Stewart-Haas Racing outperforming his multi-car operation so he's probably limited his data to the No. 14 and No. 39 teams. That said they've done remarkably well for an operation on the brink of extinction last year.

What To Expect

With a 155 point margin between himself and Johnson, it's going to take a mistake, or two on the No. 48's part for Smoke and Co. to truly be a threat for the Cup. There's no doubt that Stewart will threaten for victories, having won at the remaining Chase facilities in his career.

The question is if he'll be able to make up any ground with Johnson before Homestead. He cannot afford to lose points, so look for Stewart to drive cautiously, yet aggressively depending on where the No. 48 car runs on the track. One thing's for certain, and that is this team will not give up.

First Five Races: 14th, 9th, 1st, 5th, and 13th

Midterm Chase Grade: B+

No. 3: Jeff Gordon

Chase Summary

It has arguably been Jeff Gordon's best Chase performance since the 2007 edition, when he was outrun by teammate, and protege, Jimmie Johnson during the final five races of that postseason.

Perhaps learning from that bitter experience, when he was the best driver (minus the Chase) in the Cup ranks that season, the No. 24 team, led by crew chief Steve Letarte, has compiled strong performances and finishes that have led them to the third position in the points.

What's lacking with the DuPont team, however, is the ability to outshine and outwit Johnson and his crew chief Chad Knaus. Just when you think the No. 24 car is looking strong in the early going, here's the No. 48 team, who played dead, closing the race with a bang and victory.

Letarte has tried multiple pit strategies to get his driver optimal track position, only for Johnson to beat him at his game. Saturday night's race was a prime example of how the 24 team is great, but is not quite on par with the No. 48's efforts.

After starting the Chase with an uncharacteristic 15th place finish at Loudon, the DuPont team has finished no worse than sixth in the past four events. The last two races have shown some hope that Gordon can win...if only he could get ahead of the No. 48 car at the right time.

What To Expect

Closing out a Chase has not been Gordon's strongest points, and that probably has to to do with the tracks that remain in the postseason in past years. But this is 2009, and with Talladega coming up in two weeks, it could give this team some hope that Johnson won't run away with the Cup so easily.

These remaining tracks are definitely within Gordon's grasps for victory, even though he has yet to win at Homestead-Miami. Consistently strong at Martinsville, a restrictor plate master at Talladega, and a calculative attacker at Texas and Phoenix, Gordon has what it takes to win the title. It would just help if Johnson ran into some problems, say, for the next few weeks.

First Five Races: 15th, 6th, 2nd, 2nd, and 4th

Midterm Chase Grade: A-

No. 2: Mark Martin

Chase Summary

For a guy who's typically pessimistic about his chances of winning a title, Mark Martin finds himself in a wonderful position to finally capture that last crown jewel to his impressive NASCAR career.

It may be a compliment to be considered, as the greatest driver never to win a title, but it's one label he might shed if he steps it up a notch in the next five races.

Like Montoya, he ran into trouble at LMS, running into the back of the No. 42 Lysol/Target Chevy with his front clip. Martin was able to salvage a 17th place finish on what could have been a nightmarish result. Up until Lowe's, the No. 5 team was just 12 markers from taking the points lead away from Johnson.

Now, he finds himself 90 points behind, and with very little margin for error down the stretch. He started the Chase with a resounding victory at Loudon, followed by a runner-up at Dover, seventh at Kansas, fourth at Auto Club, and 17th in Charlotte.

It might sound like the same old song and dance with the other top-five contenders, but the case can be said for Martin. Continue to perform strong in the hopes that Johnson will sputter down the line, and the Cup is his.

What To Expect

A lot! Anything goes for Martin and crew chief Alan Gustafson, who have proven to be the odd couple of NASCAR...with success. Martin has been solid, and perhaps his stance of not thinking too much of the Cup has helped him thus far.

Can he channel his typically negative stance and turn that into motivation for one of NASCAR's most sentimental moments with the 50-year-old legend hoisting the Cup? Time will tell. If Johnson slips up, watch for the No. 5 to attack and take no prisoners.

First Five Races: 1st, 2nd, 7th, 4th, and 17th

Midterm Chase Grade: A-

No. 1: Jimmie Johnson

Chase Summary

You can condemn his performances thus far for "stinking up" the Chase, or for the fact that he's been NASCAR's best driver of the decade.

You don't have to respect this driver and team for their remarkable accomplishments in the past nine seasons, which have resulted in three consecutive Cup titles, and 46 victories.

That said, Jimmie Johnson has reminded us why he is the man to beat this year, and why he's been unbeatable since 2006.

By far, this year's Chase has been the best compilation and performance for the No. 48 team. Far stronger than their efforts from 2006-2008, what more can you say?

Johnson's worst finish was a ninth at Kansas, which most competitors would take as a bad day on any occasion. It's as if the grizzly bear woke up, and the No. 48 team has decided to feast on the competition with victories and maximum points.

Oh, did I mention that this team looks unbeatable?

What To Expect

Barring any setbacks, which seldom happen, but cannot be counted out, look for Johnson and Knaus to be crowned Cup champs for an unprecedented fourth time. They've been in this spot before as points leader, but never with a tremendous stranglehold over second and third positions.

Ninety points may not seem like a lot, but considering the demoralization that Team Lowe's has put on the Chase field, it's more like 180 points. Johnson will probably race a tick conservative, as in laying back within the Top 10, and striking for a victory when it counts.

That's what happens when you're the best. And he's certainly beaten the best of the business to become NASCAR's most antagonized driver. And yes, I mean antagonized as in a disliked driver...with immense talent.

First Five Races: 4th, 1st, 9th, 1st, and 1st

Midterm Chase Grade: A