Last Weeks Picks: 9-5 (6-8 vs. spread)
(Lock of the Week: 1-0, Game of the Week: 0-1)
Overall: 49-27 (42-34 vs. spread)
(Upset of the Week:1-2, Lock of the Week:3-0, Game of the Week: 3-2)
*spread picks in parenthesis
Cincinnati vs. Houston
The Bengals should be the surprise team that everybody in the NFL is talking about. If an unlikely fluke play didn't happen they would be 5-0. Road wins over both Pittsburgh and Baltimore seemed impossible before the season started.
The Bengals will continue to roll with a home win over Houston. Palmer and Ochocinco are heating up every week and Cedric Benson isn't slowing down. The Bengals surprisingly tough defense will shut down a disappointing Steve Slaton again and will get to Matt Schaub.
Cincinnati 28, Houston 20 (Cincinnati -4.5)
Green Bay vs. Detroit
All signs point to a huge Packers win. The Packers are coming off of a bye-week. In all likelihood Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will not play for Detroit. Green Bay is at home. And...the Lions are still bad. Aaron Rodgers is going to torch the Lions in a blowout.
Green Bay 38, Detroit 13 (Green Bay -13.5)
Minnesota vs. Baltimore
Minnesota has continued to look strong, despite many doubters (myself included). Baltimore looked very, very good through the first three weeks, but has lost back-to-back games and guys like Willis McGahee and Joe Flacco aren't playing on the same level that they previously were.
This is the game that the Ravens turn it around though. Ray Rice has been able to break some big plays on other good run defenses and Flacco will be able to throw on an average secondary. Adrian Peterson hasn't looked great the past few games and there is no reason to believe he will have a big day against a tough Ravens run defense. The Ravens defense is the pick over Brett Favre (although he has been great so far.)
Baltimore 27, Minnesota 24 (Baltimore +2.5) (Upset of the Week)
New Orleans vs. New York Giants (Game of the Week)
There are currently five undefeated teams in the NFL. There is guaranteed to be at least one fewer after this game ends. Both of these teams are great in their own right, but many don't realize that Drew Brees and the offense aren't the reason this team is 4-0. The defense and running game have transformed them from a good team into a great team. In fact, in their past two games (at Buffalo, vs. NYJ), with a combined score of 51-17, Brees stats are 362 yards and no touchdowns. He had a 55 percent completion percentage against BUFFALO! No sane person can say Brees was the reason for victories in those games.
The Saints defense and running game are the reasons they are still undefeated and if Brees starts playing like he is capable of, wow. The reasons the Saints will win are these: 1. Eli Manning is hurt and Brandon Jacobs has basically stunk so far, 2. Drew Brees will get back on track, 3. The defense will cause turnovers.
New Orleans 24, NY Giants 14 (Saints -3.5)
Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
Carolina finally made me look good by winning last week against the horrible Redskins. Another match-up with a crappy team might be the perfect medicine for a turnaround for the Panthers. DeAngelo Williams hasn't showed much burst so far and if he doesn't show it in this game, then last year was a fluke and it's Jonathan Stewart time. Steve Smith historically plays great against Tampa when they are good, he's going to go bananas against a bad Bucs team.
Carolina 34, Tampa Bay 17 (Carolina -3.5)
Washington vs. Kansas City
Has there ever been a worse team that has a 2-3 record than the Redskins? They are really awful. They have bad offensive game plan and their defense gives up points when they need to stop the offense the most. However, the Chiefs have been horrible so far and will not be able to get a whole lot of points against a decent Skins defense. Miles Austin's monster game last week means Moss or Randle El is going to have a big game. The Chiefs are due for a blowout.
Washington 31, Kansas City 14 (Washington -6.5)
Jacksonville vs. St. Louis
St. Louis is so awful it is indescribable. They have no offensive line, no passing game, no rush defense and no pass defense. Even Jacksonville will beat them badly. Jones-Drew is going to have a field day.
Jacksonville 35, St. Louis 14 (Jacksonville -9.5)
Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
It seems like every week a three to four very good teams play an awful team. Pittsburgh gets another easy opponent after facing the Lions last week. Rashard Mendenhall has looked great filling in for Willie Parker, who returns in this game, and both will have great games against the Browns and their awful run defense. Derek Anderson won't replicate his performance against Buffalo, but the Steelers pass rush will be all over him all day long.
Pittsburgh 29, Cleveland 3 (Pittsburgh -14.5)
Seattle vs. Arizona
Combined scores for Seattle when Matt Hasselbeck plays the entire game? 69-0. And their record in those games is 2-0. They are a good team with Hasselbeck under center.
Arizona will present problems through the passing game, but they'll also be hurt by their own secondary as Housh and Burleson run wild through one of the league's worst defensive backfields. This game will be a great one to watch as each team will score at will. Seahawks win in a shootout.
Seahawks 34, Cardinals 28 (Seahawks -2.5)
Oakland vs. Philadelphia
The Raiders season looked so promising, so hopeful after a great Monday Nighter with the Chargers. Now they're staring at a 1-15 record right in the face. A home date with the Eagles doesn't help that. If the Eagles could get to Jake Delhomme in week one the way that they did, imagine what Jamarcus Russell is in for. Things are looking very ugly for Raiders fans (it's bad enough to have to look at Al Davis.)
Philadelphia 38, Raiders 7 (Philadelphia -14.5) (Lock of the Week)
New York Jets vs. Buffalo
The Jets will not lose three games in a row after their strong start. Mark Sanchez will not have another putrid performance. The Jets will not lose at home. The Jets will not lose to the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are just as bad as anybody in the league at this point. So many bad teams.
NY Jets 24, Buffalo 0 (NY Jets -9.5)
New England vs. Tennessee
Many people are wondering what happened to Tennessee. The answer: Kerry Collins. Last year Collins was the middle of the road quarterback that he can be every other year, however, this year is the every other year where is stinks. Collins can't do anything for them and the defense can't stop anybody against the pass.
Tom Brady has to be smiling at the thought of picking apart the Titans secondary. He'll get a 300 yard, 3 TD game finally, although he still won't be on his way to a huge numbers season. Getting Welker back is key for the Patriots offense and they will win big.
New England 37, Tennessee 17 (New England -9.5)
Atlanta vs. Chicago
This is one of the best games of the week. Both teams are legit playoff contenders and have a lot of similarities. Young quarterbacks, pounding runners fast receivers, and game breaking tight ends. These teams are very similar, but Atlanta's offensive talent is a just a little bit superior to Chicago's which makes Atlanta is the pick in the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta 27, Chicago 21 (Atlanta -3.5)
San Diego vs. Denver
Denver has looked great so far this year, but remember, they also looked great last year at this point. There is no way Kyle Orton and Co. can continue to play at the same level they have been. They haven't faced an offense as good as San Diego's yet, and the Chargers will be the first teams to actually put some points up against that defense. The Broncos will make this a great game, but won't beat the desperate Chargers.
San Diego 24, Denver 20 (Denver +4.5)
Game of the Week: New Orleans vs. New York
Upset of the Week: Baltimore over Minnesota
Lock of the Week: Philadelphia over Oakland