NC State Wolfpack vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 23, 2017

Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush runs during the first half of an NCAA football game against Southern California, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2017, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

It's tough for high-profile programs like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to have success against the spread because oddsmakers post inflated numbers and Joe Square still bets them up. But with a big win and cover last week, Notre Dame is now 6-1 ATS this season. Can the Irish keep the good times rolling when they run with the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Saturday afternoon?

College football point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.8-31.6 Fighting Irish (College football picks on every game)

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Why the NC State Wolfpack can cover the spread

The Wolfpack ran their winning streak to six in a row with a 35-17 decision at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. They then enjoyed last week off.

North Carolina State spotted the Panthers the first seven points of the game and only managed a 14-14 tie late into the third quarter. But the Pack ended the game with a 21-3 run and covered an 11-point spread.

On the afternoon North Carolina State outgained Pitt 446-326, outrushed the Panthers 248-95 and won the turnover battle 2-0. Along the way, the Wolfpack got an 83-yard touchdown run and a 92-yard punt return for a score from running back Nyheim Hines.

North Carolina State has now outgained six of seven opponents this season and outrushed them all by a per-game margin of 177-91.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are now 5-0 both SU and ATS since taking that tough loss to Georgia, following their 49-14 blowout of USC last week. Notre Dame turned a Southern Cal fumble into an early 7-0 lead, pushed that to 14-0 after one quarter and 28-0 at the half, then cruised from there, covering easily as a four-point favorite.

On the evening the Irish outgained the Trojans 497-336, outrushed USC 377-76 and won the turnover battle 3-0. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush, after missing a game with a sore foot, threw two touchdown passes and ran for two more, while running back Josh Adams carried the ball 19 times for 191 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, the Notre Dame defense carded five sacks and 10 tackles for losses.

The Irish have now outgained five of seven opponents this season and outrushed six of them, five by 200 yards and more.

Smart pick

Notre Dame is coming off a huge effort last week against Southern Cal, which could leave them open to a letdown this week, at least to a degree. North Carolina State, meanwhile, has already passed a couple of tests this season and would love to add a victory in South Bend to its list of accomplishments. The Wolfpack might not win this game, but they're probably the smart bet, plus the points.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in 22 of Notre Dame's last 31 games at home against teams with winning records.

North Carolina State is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after consecutive wins.

The total has gone under in North Carolina State's last four games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.