The Indianapolis Colts own an 11-game winning streak in the rivalry with the Tennessee Titans, sweeping the season series five years in a row and going 10-1 against the spread in the process. Can the Colts keep that streak alive when they take on the Titans on Monday night in Nashville?
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.6-19.2 Titans (NFL picks on every game.)
Why the Colts can cover the spread
Indy just picked up its second victory of the season, a 26-23 overtime decision over San Francisco last week. The Colts took a 23-9 lead early in the fourth quarter, let the 49ers tie the game on a touchdown on a fourth down with 20 seconds to go but won it in OT on a long Adam Vinatieri field goal.
On the day, Indianapolis outrushed San Francisco 159-66 and held a 37-31 advantage in time of possession. The Colts basically outplayed the 49ers for about the first 50 minutes, and in the end they covered the spread as one-point favorites.
Two weeks ago Indianapolis lost at Seattle 46-18, but that game was tied at 18-18 well into the third quarter. Just before that the Colts beat Cleveland 31-28, and just before that they lost in overtime to Arizona. So Indianapolis is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS since inserting newcomer Jacoby Brissett as the starter at quarterback.
Why the Titans can cover the spread
Tennessee had won two games in a row, but with quarterback Marcus Mariota sidelined the Titans then lost two straight, including a tough 16-10 decision to Miami last week. The Titans spotted the Dolphins the game's first 10 points, including seven on a fumble returned for a score, rallied to tie at 10-10 in the third quarter, but fell down again early in the fourth and could not respond.
On the afternoon, Tennessee only managed 188 yards of total offense, but the defense held Miami to just 178 and a single offensive touchdown. Meanwhile, two Titans turnovers directly resulted in 10 Dolphins points, which proved too much to overcome.
A few weeks ago Tennessee beat Jacksonville and Seattle back-to-back by running the ball for 179 and 195 yards. If they can approach those figures Monday night, they should win.
The smartest play here at online gambling sites might well be a pass, because neither of these teams inspires much betting confidence at the moment. Ultimately, though, as with most NFL games, the team that wins the ground battle will probably win this contest. And that team is most likely to be Tennessee.
NFL betting trends
The Colts are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Titans.
The total has gone over in three of the Colts' last four games against the Titans.
The Titans are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 games at home against teams with losing records.
All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.