Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 11, 2017

ANN ARBOR, MI - SEPTEMBER 16: Michigan Wolverines head foot all coach Jim Harbaugh gets ready to lead his team onto the field prior to the start of the game against Air Force Falcons at Michigan Stadium on September 16, 2017 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Michigan defeated Air Force Falcons 29-13. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Leon Halip/Getty Images

The Michigan Wolverines absolutely own their football rivalry with the Indiana Hoosiers, winning 56 of 65 meetings all-time, including the last 21 in a row. But IU is 4-2 against the spread over the last six meetings, keeping several games close as underdogs. The Hoosiers are getting around a touchdown on the spread for Saturday afternoon's homecoming game. 

College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.0-20.6 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Maize and Blue started 4-0 this season but last week took a 14-10 loss at home to Michigan State. Michigan led early 3-0, trailed the Spartans 14-3 at halftime, got within four points midway through the third quarter, but it could not score again. A Hail Mary came up empty.

The Wolverines actually outgained Michigan State, 300-252, but uncharacteristically committed five turnovers, one of which led to a Spartans touchdown and another that cost them a shot at a field goal.

The defense played well, especially in the second half, when it forced seven Michigan State punts and stuffed the Spartans on a fourth down inside its territory.

The Wolverines have outgained all five opponents this season and outrushed four of them.

         

Why the Indiana Hoosiers can cover the spread

Indiana bounced back from a loss at Penn State two weeks ago to beat Charleston Southern 27-0 last week. The Hoosiers, with freshman quarterback Peyton Ramsey making his first start, led 10-0 after one quarter and 20-0 at the half. Unfortunately for its financial backers, Indiana lost two fumbles inside CSU territory and came up just short of covering a 28-point spread.

The Hoosiers outgained the Buccaneers 478-134 and made 25 first downs, compared to Charleston Southern's six. Ramsey hit on 32 of 41 throws for 321 yards and two touchdowns, against one pick, while the IU defense did not allow a single completion in 10 attempts.

Indiana is only 1-2 ATS this season at home but could be 3-0. Earlier this year the Hoosiers, as 20-point home dogs, led Ohio State 21-20 well into the third quarter before losing 49-21. They beat Georgia Southern three weeks ago 52-17, covering as three-touchdown favorites.

IU has outrushed each of its last four opponents.

          

Smart pick

Michigan is a bit of a question mark at the moment because backup quarterback John O'Korn didn't look good last week (16-of-35, 198 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs). The senior did, however, have what would have been a key late completion dropped. Still, the Wolverines own advantages in the running game and on defense, and playing on the road means the spread is more amenable. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are starting a freshman at QB. Smart money here wagers Michigan on the rebound at online betting sites.

         

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Indiana's last seven games in Week 7.

The total has gone over in six of Michigan's last eight games on the road.

Michigan is 12-4 straight up in its last 16 games against its conference.

        

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.