Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2017

Miami quarterback Malik Rosier (12) looks to pass against Duke during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Durham, N.C., Friday, Sept. 29, 2017. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
Gerry Broome/Associated Press

The Florida State Seminoles own serious bragging rights in the rivalry with the Miami Hurricanes, winning the last seven meetings outright and going 4-3 against the spread. But Miami thinks it's got a great shot at ending that drought this time around. In a battle postponed due to Hurricane Irma the Hurricanes challenge the Seminoles on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee, Florida.

College football point spread: The Seminoles opened as one-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.1-29.6 Hurricanes (college football picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

          

Why the Miami-FL Hurricanes can cover the spread

Miami is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the season, after dumping Duke last Friday night 31-6. The Hurricanes grabbed an early 14-0 lead, and later tacked on the last two scores of the game on their way to an easy cover as six-point favorites on the road.

On the night, Miami outgained the Blue Devils 409-349. Quarterback Malik Rosier threw a pair of touchdown passes and ran for a score, and the Hurricanes converted two Duke turnovers into 10 points. Meanwhile, the defense held the Blue Devils to a six-for-22 performance on third and fourth downs, including two fourth-down stops inside Miami territory.

The Hurricanes haven't played the toughest schedule so far this year, but they have outgained each of their first three opponents by an average of 135 yards.

              

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

Florida State just picked up its first victory of the year, a 26-19 decision at Wake Forest. That game went back and forth all day, but in the end, freshman quarterback James Blackman, subbing for the injured Deondre Francois, connected with Auden Tate on a 40-yard touchdown strike with just under a minute to go. The Seminoles then survived a Hail Mary to hang on for the win.

On the day, Florida State outrushed the Demon Deacons 149-96 and held a 35/25 time-of-possession advantage. Running back Jacques Patrick gained 120 yards on 19 carries and scored once, while the defense limited Wake Forest to just four-for-14 on third downs.

The Seminoles also had a touchdown return on the opening kickoff negated by a penalty, but they later got an 81-yard return that set up their first touchdown.

Florida State isn't a home dog too often, but the last time they were, last year against Clemson, they nearly pulled the upset and covered getting four points.

         

Smart pick

Miami lost a heartbreaker to Florida State last year on a blocked extra point with a minute-and-a-half to go. In fact, the Hurricanes have lost the previous three meetings by a combined 10 points. But they want this one. The Seminoles, meanwhile, are finding life without Francois a little tough. The smart money here on the college football lines likes Miami.

            

College football betting trends

Miami is 1-3 ATS in its last four games against Florida State.

The total has gone under in Miami's last six games against Florida State.

Florida State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home against teams with winning records.

         

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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