Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: Wild Card Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2017

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 30:  Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks towards his dugout after hitting a fourth inning home run against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

At least one great comeback story will continue in the 2017 MLB postseason after the New York Yankees (91-71) host the Minnesota Twins (85-77) as big home favorites for Tuesday's American League Wild Card Game.

The Yankees are back in the playoffs following a one-year hiatus, while the Twins just became the first team ever to lose 100 games and then make the postseason the next year by finishing second in the AL Central behind the Cleveland Indians.

Betting line: The Yankees opened as -245 favorites (wager $245 to win $100); the total is at 7.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.5-1.5, Yankees (MLB picks on every game).

          

Why the Twins can pay on the MLB lines

Is Minnesota a team of destiny? Winning at New York would be the first step, especially as such a big underdog. The Twins closed out the regular season by winning seven of their last 10 games to hold off the Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays for the AL's second wild card.

They will turn to veteran righty Ervin Santana (16-8, 3.28 ERA) in an effort to pull off the upset, and he went 0-1 in one start against the Yankees with a 3.18 ERA after allowing two runs and seven hits in 5.2 innings of a 2-1 road loss with one walk and three strikeouts on September 18. If Santana can duplicate that performance, Minnesota will have a shot to win.

             

Why the Yankees can pay on the MLB lines

New York won four of the six meetings during the regular season, including a three-game sweep in the second half of September when both teams were fighting for the playoffs. The Yankees will send young righty Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98) to the hill opposite Santana even though he did not pitch particularly well the last time he faced the Twins.

Severino had a 46-pitch third inning that did him in, as he gave up three runs and five hits in three innings of an 11-3 victory with one walk and three strikeouts. Still, he deservedly gets the nod here as New York's best starter and should be able to rebound from that tough outing in this spot.

       

Smart betting pick

The line on this game is way too big in favor of the Yankees, especially when considering the pitching matchup. Santana has a decade of experience on Severino and will not be bothered by pitching on the road at New York. In fact, Severino performed worse at Yankee Stadium this year with an 8-5 mark and 3.71 ERA compared to 6-1 and 2.24 away from home.

Minnesota was a better road team this season as well and will advance to face the Indians in a major upset on the MLB lines.

       

MLB betting trends

Minnesota is 7-3 in its last 10 games.

The total has gone under in four of Minnesota's last five games.

The total has gone under in five of New York's last six games.

       

All MLB odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.