Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines: Odds, Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 2, 2017

Michigan quarterback John O'Korn (8) throws against Purdue during the second half of an NCAA college football game in West Lafayette, Ind., Saturday, Sept. 23, 2017. Michigan defeated Purdue. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
Michael Conroy/Associated Press

With a little help from a minor miracle a couple years back the Michigan State Spartans are 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with the rival Michigan Wolverines, and a perfect 9-0 against the spread. In the annual battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy, Michigan State visits the Big House in Ann Arbor on Saturday night.

College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as 13-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.8-20.2 Wolverines (College football picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State just bounced back from that loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago to beat Iowa on Saturday 17-10. The Spartans drove their opening possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, bumped their lead to 14-0 later in the first quarter and held on from there for the win and the cover as four-point favorites.

On the day, Michigan State outgained the Hawkeyes 300-226, held a 34/26 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 2-0. The Spartans have now outgained each of their four opponents this season—and outrushed three of them. They're also 3-1 ATS.

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

Michigan reached 4-0 on the season with a 28-10 victory at Purdue two weeks ago, then enjoyed last week off.

The Wolverines trailed the Boilermakers 10-7 well into the third quarter at West Lafayette but scored the final 21 points of the game to not only win but cover as 13-point chalk. Michigan dominated play for the most part, outgaining Purdue 423-189, winning time of possession by a 39/21 margin.

Backup quarterback John O'Korn, playing in place of an injured Wilton Speight, hit on 18 of 26 throws for 270 yards and a touchdown, while running back Chris Evans ran 14 times for 97 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, the Michigan defense held the Boilers to just 30 rushing yards and an 0-for-12 performance on third-down conversions while recording five sacks.

The Wolverines have now outgained and outrushed each of their four opponents this season.

     

Smart pick

Michigan State scored a quick 14 points last week against Iowa then went cold from there. The Spartans will be hard-pressed to score 14 points against this Michigan defense. And O'Korn looked capable in relief against Purdue, so the Wolverines should be fine at that spot. The smart money here bets Michigan on the college football point spreads.

         

College football betting trends

Michigan State is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last nine games against Michigan.

The total has gone over in Michigan State's last three games against Michigan.

Michigan is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its last six games in Week 6.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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