New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 29, 2017

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees talks to head coach Sean Payton, right, during an NFL training session at the London Irish rugby team training ground in the Sunbury-on-Thames suburb of south west London, Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2017. The New Orleans Saints are preparing for an NFL regular season game against the Miami Dolphins at London's Wembley stadium on Sunday. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
Matt Dunham/Associated Press

The New Orleans Saints are 3-0 on the over this season at the sportsbooks, and stretching back to last year they've played six over results in a row.

The Saints take their high-scoring ways with them across the pond this week for a game with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in London.

              

NFL point spread: The Saints opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.7-19.2 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

                 

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are coming off their best effort of this season, a 34-13 victory at previously unbeaten Carolina last week.

New Orleans spotted the Panthers an early field goal and took the lead for good on a Drew Brees touchdown pass to wide receiver Michael Thomas late in the first quarter.

Leading 17-6 at halftime, the Saints then iced the game by scoring the first touchdown out of the locker room.

On the day, New Orleans outgained Carolina 362-288 and won the turnover battle 3-0. In fact, the Saints have yet to turn the ball over this season.

Brees connected on 22 of 29 throws for 220 yards and three touchdowns, the ground game produced 149 yards and the defense recorded three picks and four sacks.

New Orleans now ranks seventh in the league in total offense, averaging 378 yards per game.

            

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are looking to rebound from an ugly 20-6 loss to the New York Jets last week. Some performances are better left forgotten, and for this team, last week's is one of them.

Miami would prefer to remember better times, like its 19-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles two weeks ago.

The Dolphins trailed L.A. 17-10 in the third quarter but scored the last nine points of the gamethe last three on a 54-yard field goal from Cody Parkey with a minute to goto steal the victory.

Miami outrushed the Chargers that day 111-44 and won time of possession by a 33/27 split. Quarterback Jay Cutlerin his first start for his new teamhit on 24 of 33 throws for 230 yards and one touchdown, with zero interceptions. Running back Jay Ajayi ran 28 times for 122 yards, and Parkey made four field goals in four attempts.

                

Smart pick

The Saints looked great last week, while the Dolphins looked terrible. But the NFL can be a funny place, where teams who were up one week are often down the next, and vice versa. The smart money here at online sports betting sites likes Miami.

                 

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in four of the Saints' last five games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 1-6 SU in their last seven games in Week 4.

The total has gone over in 10 of the Saints' last 12 games as a favorite.

                 

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.