NFL Picks Week 4: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over/Under Lines

Paul KasabianSenior ContributorSeptember 28, 2017

FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 24: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots makes a pass against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium on September 24, 2017 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

After the NFL weekend is complete, it's always fun to immediately check out the next week's slate of games.

At first glance, you may have some gut calls on how a certain game will go.

For example, at the beginning of this week, I was certain that the Jacksonville Jaguars would walk over the New York Jets, especially after seeing the Jags crush Baltimore 44-7. 

After reviewing the previous week's games and some stats, however, the Jags-Jets matchup might be much closer than it previously appeared.

You can take a look at what the experts are thinking below via NFL Pick Watch. We'll also take a quick peek at each game, offer some score projections and take a short dive into six of the matchups. All odds are via OddsShark.

        

Week 4 Odds and Predictions

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Date and Time: Thursday, September 29, at 8:30 p.m. ET

Expert Consensus: Green Bay (95 percent)

Spread and Over/Under Total: Packers -6.5, 44.5 O/U

Pick: Green Bay 20, Chicago 13

            

New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins (in London)

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 9:30 a.m. ET

Expert Consensus: New Orleans (71 percent)

Spread and Over/Under Total: Saints -3, 49 O/U

Pick: New Orleans 30, Miami 20

              

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Consensus: New England (100 percent)

Spread and Over/Under Total: Patriots -9, 48.5 O/U

Pick: New England 27, Carolina 20

          

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Consensus: Dallas (95 percent)

Spread and Over/Under Total: Cowboys -6, 47.5 O/U

Pick: Dallas 27, Los Angeles 24

        

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. ET

Expert Consensus: Detroit (53 percent)

Spread and Over/Under Total: Not Available

Pick: Minnesota 17, Detroit 10

                 

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Titans -1.5, 43.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Tennessee (67 percent)

Pick: Tennessee 28, Houston 20

         

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Jaguars -3, 39.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Jacksonville (89 percent)

Pick: Jacksonville 16, New York Jets 9

          

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Bengals -3, 41 O/U

Expert Consensus: Cincinnati (79 percent)

Pick: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 10

            

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Steelers -2.5, 42 O/U

Expert Consensus: Pittsburgh (73 percent)

Pick: Pittsburgh 14, Baltimore 13

         

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Falcons -8, 48.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Atlanta (100 percent)

Pick: Atlanta 24, Buffalo 21

         

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 4:05 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Buccaneers -3, 44 O/U

Expert Consensus: Tampa Bay (83 percent)

Pick: New York Giants 24, Tampa Bay 17

           

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 4:05 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Chargers -1, 47.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Philadelphia (64 percent)

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers 24, Philadelphia Eagles 21

           

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 4:05 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Cardinals -7, 44.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Arizona (87 percent)

Pick: Arizona 24, San Francisco 10

        

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 4:25 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Broncos -3, 47 O/U

Expert Consensus: Denver (73 percent)

Pick: Denver 27, Oakland 17

                 

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks

Date and Time: Sunday, October 1, at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Seahawks -13, 41.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Seattle (100 percent)

Pick: Seattle 24, Indianapolis 7

          

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs

Date and Time: Monday, October 2, at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread and Over/Under Total: Chiefs -6.5, 49.5 O/U

Expert Consensus: Kansas City (97 percent)

Pick: Kansas City 27, Washington 17

          

Analysis

Chicago at Green Bay

With tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari doubtful, per the Green Bay Packers' injury report, the offensive line may struggle to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which was the case when the Pack squeaked by Cincinnati in a 27-24 overtime win last weekend.

The Bengals sacked Rodgers six times and even completed a pick-six thanks to cornerback William Jackson jumping a route.

However, it's still hard to bet against Rodgers at home. He showed why he is one of the best quarterbacks of all time last Sunday by stepping up and making incredible throws to his receivers, who made tremendous catches down the stretch.

This game might be close given the issues up front, but the Pack should hang on.

       

New Orleans at Miami (in London)

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas caught five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown on the opening drive against the Carolina Panthers last week. That's a decent performance for one day.

The Dolphins secondary had a rough outing against the New York Jets last week, especially when it let up a long touchdown pass to wideout Robby Anderson.

A date with the Saints is a much tougher endeavor because the Fins have to contend with one of the best receivers in football (Thomas), a speed demon who can take the top off any defense (Ted Ginn Jr.), a big target in Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead back from suspension.

That's a tall order for Miami, who will fall to 1-2.

       

Carolina at New England

Running back Christian McCaffrey broke out last Sunday by catching nine passes for 101 yards. He'll be a big matchup problem for the New England Patriots this week, as the Pats defense has gotten off to a rough start, giving up an average of 32.66 points per game.

But the Panthers defense will have even bigger trouble against New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who has picked apart the last two defenses he has seen to the tune of eight touchdowns.

He has shown no signs of slowing down at 40 years old and has developed a solid rapport with his new skill-position teammates (wideout Brandin Cooks and running backs Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead).

This game will be a little closer than the nine-point spread indicates, but Brady and the Pats will do just enough to hold off Carolina.

          

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas

This might be the best game of the week. The Los Angeles Rams are for real, as their offense is creative and exciting to watch. Rookie head coach Sean McVay has clearly instilled his offensive game plans to near-perfection thus far, and it will be interesting to see how far the Rams can go.

But the defense is clearly a step behind, as evidenced by a narrow 41-39 win over the winless San Francisco 49ers last Thursday and a 27-20 Week 2 loss to Washington, when running backs Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson dominated.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott should hold off the Rams' offensive charge by grinding out yards on the ground, delivering a victory for the home crowd.

         

Detroit at Minnesota

The spread here will not be available until the status of Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford, who is battling a knee injury, is known. Per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, head coach Mike Zimmer gave the signal-caller the day off Wednesday and is hopeful he can return Sunday. Bradford has missed two straight games after playing the opener.

Even without Bradford, the slight edge goes to Minnesota. The Vikings are at home, and they have an impressive skill-position core featuring breakout stars at wide receiver (Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen) and a rookie running back in Dalvin Cook who is very hard to take down.

Football Outsiders rates the trio very highly: Diggs and Thielen are ranked first and sixth at their position, respectively, and Cook slots in at fourth.

Those three will lead Minnesota to quite a few wins this year, and the defense isn't shabby either. The Vikings will win a close one over Detroit.

         

Jacksonville at New York Jets

The Jacksonville Jaguars have two shutdown cornerbacks in A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey as well as a host of fantastic defensive talents.

The New York Jets can potentially game-plan around that secondary strength, however, with dink-and-dunk passes to running back Bilal Powell and tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.

The Jets defense also has some stars (or budding stars) themselves, so this game could be closer than it might initially appear after the Jags crush Baltimore 44-7 last Sunday.

Still, give the edge to the Jags and bruising running back in Leonard Fournette, who will help grind out the tough yards en route to a close win.