Week 4 NFL Picks: Prop Bets Advice, Vegas Odds, Spreads and Predictions

Steve Silverman@@profootballboyFeatured ColumnistSeptember 28, 2017

Odell Beckham is hoping to build off his two-touchdown performance in Week 3.
Odell Beckham is hoping to build off his two-touchdown performance in Week 3.Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

The New York Giants have failed to live up to preseason expectations.

The Giants were a playoff team a year ago and gained quite a bit of attention because they were 2-0 against the Dallas Cowboys, and those were the only meaningful regular-season games that the NFC East champions lost last season. The Cowboys dropped their season finale to the Philadelphia Eagles last year, but they had clinched the best record in the NFC by that point.

The Giants have not been able to pick up where they left off, as their offense has been poor in 11 of the 12 quarters this season.

The only good quarter was the fourth period of their Week 3 loss to the Eagles, when Eli Manning threw three TD passes, including two to Odell Beckham and one to Sterling Shepard.

The Giants go to Tampa Bay Sunday in an attempt to get their season started. They are hoping to take advantage of a Buccaneers defense that gave up 34 points to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.

The most encouraging thing for the Giants is that Case Keenum, not starter Sam Bradford, directed the Minnesota attack. The backup quarterback, however, riddled the Bucs with 369 passing yards, three TD passes and no interceptions.

While Manning may no longer be at the peak of his game, it's fairly safe to say that he is a better quarterback than Keenum.

The Bucs have a solid-looking passing game with Jameis Winston at quarterback along with wideouts Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. They have the pressure of having to produce on nearly every drive because the team's defense is vulnerable. Winston does not have a viable running game because Doug Martin is serving out a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.

The Bucs are three-point favorites in this game, according to OddsShark, but we see the Giants putting it together and outlasting the home team and coming up with their first victory of the season.

        

Week 4 point spreads and predictions 

Matchup, spread, selection

Chicago at Green Bay, GB -6.5, Green Bay

New Orleans at Miami, NO -3, Miami

L.A. Rams at Dallas, Dallas -6, LA Rams*

Tennessee at Houston, Tenn. -1.5, Tennessee

Detroit at Minnesota, no line, Minnesota

Buffalo at Atlanta, Atlanta -8, Atlanta

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Pitt. -2.5, Baltimore

Cincinnati at Cleveland, Cin. -3, Cincinnati

Carolina at New England, NE -9, New England

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets, Jack. -3, Jacksonville

San Francisco at Arizona, Ariz. -7, San Francisco*

Philadelphia at L.A. Chargers, LAC -1, Philadelphia

N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay, TB -3, N.Y. Giants

Oakland at Denver, Den. -3, Oakland

Indianapolis at Seattle, Sea. -13, Indianapolis*

Washington at Kansas City, KC -6.5, Washington

*-will cover spread but lose game

         

Kirk Cousins is off to an excellent start in 2017.
Kirk Cousins is off to an excellent start in 2017.Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs

The Redskins have bounced back with two solid victories after dropping their opener to the Eagles, while the Chiefs are off to an impressive 3-0 start and appear to be ready to make a solid run at AFC dominance. 

The Redskins have one of the game's most accurate quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins, and he has the ability to take advantage in the slightest bit of separation that his receivers can get from defensive backs. Cousins has completed 66 of 97 passes this season for 784 yards with five touchdowns and one interception.

Terrelle Pryor Sr. and Jamison Crowder are a pair of dangerous wideouts, while Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis are both threats at the tight end position.

However, the biggest boost has come from running back Chris Thompson, who has run for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 8.9 yards per carry. He has caught 13 passes for 231 yards and two more scores, and his versatility and effectiveness are both unexpected weapons.

The Chiefs will counter with their big-play offense that features wide receiver Tyreek Hill and rookie running back Kareem Hunt.

Hill came to the forefront a year ago with his ability to make big plays in the return game, and that allowed him to gain an opportunity as a receiver. He has game-breaking speed and the skill to make big plays as a pass catcher

Hunt has also been a huge weapon out of the backfield, and that started in Week 1 against the Patriots when he scored on a 75-yard catch-and-run. Hunt has already run for 401 yards and he has a run of at least 53 yards in all three games this season.

Quarterback Alex Smith has done his part, completing 77.4 percent of his passes for 774 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites over the Redskins, but Washington dominated the Oakland Raiders in its last game. The Redskins should not be intimidated by the atmosphere in Kansas City and be able to trade points with the Chiefs.

Look for Washington to cover the spread and come through with the game-winning score on its final possession.

          

Tarik Cohen has emerged as a major threat for the Bears.
Tarik Cohen has emerged as a major threat for the Bears.Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Prop Bet

In an attempt to add a little bit more excitement to Thursday night's matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers, we are taking a look at the first touchdown scorer in that game.

OddsChecker offers odds on the player who will find his way into the end zone first, and Green Bay running back Ty Montgomery is the favorite along with star wideout Jordy Nelson at 7-1. Both of those players are strong contenders, while Packer wideout Davante Adams is 8-1.

Running back Jordan Howard of the Bears is the visitor with the best odds at 10-1, while rookie Tarik Cohen is 12-1.

Cohen's odds are intriguing, and the running back is capable of hitting a home run as a runner or a receiver. Cohen can score a touchdown on any play that the Packers suffer a tackling breakdown.

The pick here is to make a play on Cohen as the game's first TD scorer and earn a solid return for the investment.