The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as favorites on the road. The Chicago Bears are 5-1 ATS their last six times out as home dogs. These teams fall into those splits this week, as the favored Steelers battle the underdog Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.2-18.3 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Steelers can cover the spread
Pittsburgh is off to a 2-0 start to this season after beating Minnesota last week 26-9. The Steelers grabbed a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter and never really let the Vikings back in contention on their way toward covering an eight-point spread.
On the day, Pittsburgh outgained Minnesota 335-237 and won time of possession by a 34/26 margin. Running back LeVeon Bell, who only tallied 32 rushing yards in Week 1, ran for 87 in Week 2, while wide receiver Martavis Bryant caught three balls for 91 yards and a touchdown and kicker Chris Boswell hit four field goals in four attempts.
Meanwhile the Steelers defense held an opponent to just 237 total yards for the second straight game.
Pittsburgh opened this season with a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. The Steelers, as 10-point favorites, had that spread covered with a 21-10 lead but lost the cash when they gave up a Browns touchdown with three minutes to go.
Why the Bears can cover the spread
Chicago is hoping to rebound after whiffing at Tampa Bay last week 29-7. The Bears trailed the Buccaneers 10-0 after one quarter and never threatened to rally in an effort that would wisely be forgotten.
New starting quarterback Mike Glennon threw for 301 yards and a late touchdown, although of course most of that yardage came as Chicago tried to play catch-up. He also committed three turnovers that led directly to 14 Tampa points.
The Bears opened this season with a solid effort in a 23-17 loss at home to defending NFC champion Atlanta. Chicago trailed the Falcons by 10 points early in the fourth quarter, but rallied to within six and drove deep inside the Atlanta red zone in the final half-minute. The Bears came up empty on four plays from the Falcons five-yard line, but they did hang on for the cover as 6.5-point home dogs.
Pittsburgh's vaunted offensive attack has not yet clicked, and while its defense shows nice numbers, they came up against teams quarterbacked by a rookie and a cast-off. Chicago, meanwhile, is coming off a dreadful effort last week, but the Bears, as mentioned at the top, have shown life recently as home dogs. The Steelers may well still win this game, but Chicago might be the smart betting choice.
NFL betting trends
The Steelers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Bears.
The total has gone under in eight of the Bears' last 11 games as home underdogs.
The Steelers are 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as favorite.
All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.