Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistSeptember 20, 2017

NORMAN, OK - SEPTEMBER 16: Quarterback Baker Mayfield #6 of the Oklahoma Sooners warms up before the game against the Tulane Green Wave at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on September 16, 2017 in Norman, Oklahoma. Oklahoma defeated Tulane 56-14. (Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)
Brett Deering/Getty Images

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to an impressive start this season, with a 3-0 record against the spread, while the Baylor Bears have had a terrible start, thank to an 0-3 mark ATS.

Two teams from opposite ends of the spectrum meet when Oklahoma battles Baylor in the Big 12 opener for both teams Saturday night in Waco, Texas.


College football point spread: The Sooners opened as 27.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 61.8-16.6 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

OU ran its winning streak to 13 games with a 56-14 trouncing of Tulane last week. The Sooners actually spotted the Green Wave 7-0 and 14-7 leads, then ended the game with a 49-0 run and covered a 33-point spread.

On the day, Oklahoma outgained Tulane 631-291. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns, running back Abdul Adams accounted for 125 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and wide receivers Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb combined for 286 yards on 10 catches, three for scores.

Meanwhile, the Sooners defense threw a shutout over the last 49 minutes of the game and scored a touchdown of its own, a 77-yard pick-six by cornerback Parnell Motley that gave OU the lead for good in the second quarter.

Oklahoma opened this season with a 56-7 romp over UTEP, covering a 43-point spread, then beat Ohio State in Columbus 31-16 as a seven-point underdog.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

The case for Baylor is a little tougher to make. The Bears opened their first season under new head coach Matt Rhule by losing to Liberty 48-45 as 33-point favorites. They then lost to Texas-San Antonio 17-10 as 12-point chalk. And last week Baylor fell at Duke 34-20, missing the spread as 10-point underdogs.

The Bears actually took a 7-0 lead on the Blue Devils 30 seconds into the game on a 44-yard touchdown connection from Zach Smith to Denzel Mims. And they only trailed 24-20 through three quarters. But a Duke pick-six early in the fourth quarter ended any hopes of an upset.

Smith, making his first start of this season, threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns, including two of more than 70 yards to wide receiver Chris Platt. But he also committed four turnovers that led directly to 10 Duke points.


Smart pick

These two teams are headed in different directions at the moment, and playing on the road means the spread at online betting sites isn't as prohibitive as it could be. Smart money here sides with the Sooners.


College football betting trends

The total has gone under in three of Oklahoma's last four games against Baylor.

Oklahoma is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road against Baylor.

Baylor is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against its conference.


All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.