The Oklahoma State Cowboys own the upper hand in the series with the TCU Horned Frogs, going 4-1 both straight up and against the spread over the last five meetings, including a decisive decision last year in Fort Worth. Can the high-scoring Cowboys extend their hold on the Horned Frogs when the teams open Big 12 play Saturday in Stillwater?
College football point spread: The Cowboys opened as 11.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 46.2-29.8 Cowboys (College football picks on every game).
Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread
TCU is off to a 3-0 start to this season, after sliding by SMU last Saturday 56-36. The Frogs spotted the Mustangs an early 19-7 advantage, then went on a 28-3 run, taking the lead for good on a 38-yard Hail Mary connection from quarterback Kenny Hill to wide receiver Jalen Reagor on the final play of the first half.
Texas Christian, as a 22-point favorite, had the spread covered at 56-29 midway through the fourth quarter, but he gave up a meaningless SMU touchdown and later eschewed kicking an easy field goal in the final half-minute.
On the day, the Frogs popped off for 619 yards of total offense, 254 on the ground and 365 through the air. Hill hit on 24 of 30 passes, with four touchdowns to four different receivers, and the TCU defense added a score on a fourth-quarter pick-six.
Two weeks ago, the Frogs flew into Fayetteville, Arkansas, and beat the Razorbacks 28-7, winning outright as three-point dogs.
Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread
Oklahoma State is also 3-0, and 3-0 ATS, after pounding Pitt on Saturday 59-21. The Cowboys scored a touchdown on the opening drive of the game, led 35-0 just three minutes into the second quarter, then strolled home from there, easily covering the 10-point spread.
On the afternoon OSU, piled up 715 yards of offense, 516 in the first half alone. Senior QB Mason Rudolph threw for 497 yards and five touchdowns, all in that first half, while four different receivers caught at least 100 yards worth of balls. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense scored a touchdown for the third straight game on a third-quarter pick-six by linebacker Justin Phillips.
Oklahoma State opened this season with a 59-24 victory over Tulsa, covering a 20-point spread, then beat South Alabama 44-7, covering a 28-point spread.
The Cowboys beat TCU last year 31-6, but the Frogs are a better team now than they were then. Also, the spread on this game is likely inflated due to the gaudy numbers Oklahoma State put up last week. The Cowboys may still win this game, but smart money takes TCU plus the points at online betting sites.
College football betting trends
TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games against Oklahoma State.
The total has gone under in four of TCU's last five games against Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after consecutive wins.
All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.