#7 Ohio St. (-13.5) 27 PURDUE 17
Purdue can't seem to keep from beating themselves, as 3 more turnovers and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown turned a close game into a 20-35 loss last week at Minnesota.
Purdue is now 1-5 despite out-gaining a tougher than average schedule of teams 6.1 yards per play to 5.1 yppl. The Boilermakers can compete with Ohio State from the line of scrimmage, as my math model projects 5.0 yppl for the Buckeyes and 4.8 yppl for Purdue, but turnovers and special teams greatly favor the Buckeyes.
Still, my math model gives Purdue a 54% chance of covering at +13 1/2 points.
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