Pittsburgh Steelers logoPittsburgh Steelers

Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For STEELERS (-14) Vs. BROWNS

PITTSBURGH, UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 11:  Santonio Holmes #10 of the Pittsburgh Steelers carries the ball in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans on September 11, 2009 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Steelers defeated the Titans 13-10 in overtime.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 15, 2009

PITTSBURGH (-14.0) 26 Cleveland 13

Over/Under Total: 38.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-18

The Browns managed to win at Buffalo last week despite just 22 passing yards on 18 pass plays, as their +2 in turnover margin made the difference. The trade of WR Braylon Edwards apparently has made the Browns' pass attack even worse than it was before as Edwards averaged 6.3 yards on the 22 passes intended for him while the other Browns' wide receivers combine for just 5.0 ypa, which is horrible. Pittsburgh's defense is 0.5 yards per pass play better than average this season and the Steelers get All-Pro S Troy Polamalu back this week.

Pittsburgh is even better defending the run (3.7 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team), so the Browns don't figure to do much damage offensively in this game.

Pittsburgh's offense has been very good this season, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and the emergence of RB Rashard Mendenhall as the starter the last two weeks (242 yards at 5.5 ypr) has made them even better. Former starter Willie Parker and his 3.1 ypr average are back this week, which actually hurts the Steelers' rushing attack if they're stupid enough to let Parker cut into Mendenhall's work load. Parker's ypr average has gone down every single year of his career from 4.7 ypr in 2005 to 4.4 ypr, to 4.1 ypr, to 3.8 ypr last season, and now 3.1 ypr.

Hopefully for Steelers' fans the coaching staff will be smart enough to put Parker out to pasture and let the young horse carry the load. If Parker plays he actually should have good success today against a Browns' defense that is horrible defending the run (5.2 ypr allowed). Cleveland has actually been better than average against the pass (5.8 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense) and they're only 0.2 yppl worse than average overall defensively. Still, that's not good enough to contain a good Steelers' offense.

My math model favors the Steelers by 17 points and my ratings favor Pittsburgh by 13 points, but the Steelers apply to a 28-70-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and the Browns spirits are high after winning last week.

I'll lean slightly with Cleveland at +14 points based on the situation.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

I have 6 NCAA Best Bets and 2 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 1 NFL Best Bet and 1 NFL Strong Opinion!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal


Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BleacherReport.com is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices