JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) 27 St. Louis 17
The Rams are once again one of the worst teams in the league, rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average on offense with Marc Bulger at quarterback and 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively.
That defense will be up against a Jaguars' offense that will be eager to play well after getting shutout last week at Seattle and the Jags are 7-0-1 ATS after scoring 7 points or fewer under coach Jack Del Rio. Despite their poor outing last week Jacksonville is still better than average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and the Jaguars feasted on the one really bad defense that they've faced so far - averaging 6.9 yppl and scoring 31 points against Houston.
The Jaguars' defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl), but they have an edge over a Rams' team with a horrible pass attack with emerging WR Laurent Robinson out for the season with a leg injury. Robinson was averaging a decent 7.3 yards per pass thrown to him in 2 1/2 games before getting hurt and the rest of the Vikings wideouts have averaged a porous 5.9 ypa. Having Bulger back helps a little because he throws fewer interceptions than Kyle Boller does, but my math model favors Jacksonville by 14 1/2 points and my ratings favor the Jags by 15 points.
The reason I am not recommending playing the Jaguars in this game is because a very strong 72-17 ATS situation applies to the Rams in this game while a negative 43-96-3 ATS big home favorite angle applies to Jacksonville. With the math favoring one side and the situations favoring the other side it is probably best to pass on this game.
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