Notre Dame Dilemma: Charlie Weis' Fate Tied to Jimmy Clausen, Not USC Outcome

(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

There's a perception among Notre Dame fans and detractors alike that head coach Charlie Weis must beat USC this weekend to preserve his job.

Weis is winless against Pete Carroll as he prepares for a fifth shot at the Trojans, and save one exception, the series hasn't been close. 

Would Ohio State's Jim Tressel walk the sidelines after five straight losses to Michigan? Could Bob Stoops go 0-for-5 against Texas and still draw Oklahoma's paycheck? How about if those losses were by an average margin of 24 points?

Of course not.

So, if the Irish fall on Saturday, and especially if they're once again boat raced by USC, shouldn't Weis lose his job?

Of course he should. But he won't.

You see, the fallacy of the Charlie Weis hot seat is that his immediate future is tied to his 2009 record, and more specifically the outcome of No. 5 USC vs. No 25 Notre Dame.

It isn't. It's tied to Jimmy Clausen.

The Irish quarterback is destined for December's Heisman Trophy presentation, and perhaps next spring's NFL Draft. He's part of a prolific crop of sophomore and junior offensive players, the vast majority of which will be back in South Bend in 2010.

Clausen is the linchpin, and Weis' trump card.

If he declares early, Weis will have to stand on his own meager head coaching credentials and will absolutely be subject to termination.

But if the nation's leading passer wins the Heisman, or is at least a finalist in New York, then declares his intentions to return for a senior season, do you think athletic director Jack Swarbrick would dare pull the plug on his head coach? The man who coaxed that coveted recruit out of USC's backyard and developed him into the most prolific passer in Irish history?

That would cause Clausen to bolt for the pros faster than former Trojan Mike Williams.

And therein lies the Notre Dame dilemma.

Weis is essentially guaranteed the 2010 season by virtue of the national championship potential next year's team possesses. But what if the current coaching staff is the only thing preventing the Irish from seizing that potential?

If Clausen's return to campus promises the Irish offensive stability and a chance at a title, Notre Dame would be foolish to throw it all away by firing the head coach. Yet, so long as Weis is at the helm, some Golden Domers believe that title chance is at best a Grotto prayer.

It's an impossible Catch-22 that even Michael Floyd and Golden Tate would rather drop than decide. Fortunately, the Irish receivers won't have to and neither will Notre Dame.

Because, while you'll hear about Weis' job security ad nauseam this weekend on ESPN and NBC, and how it depends on breaking Notre Dame's seven-game losing streak against USC, any commentator who asserts that a loss seals his fate lacks foresight.

After all, it's ultimately Clausen's decision to make, not Swarbrick's or NDNation's.

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