Arkansas St. 31 UL MONROE (-2.0) 30
This game is probably best left alone, as my math model gives Arkansas State a 58% chance to cover at +2 points while UL Monroe applies to a very strong 102-38-1 ATS home momentum situation.
Arkansas State has lost all 3 of their games against Division 1A opponents, but the Redwolves have faced a tough schedule of teams in Nebraska, Troy State, and Iowa, who they almost upset.
Both teams are better than average offensively and struggle on defense so there should be plenty of points. I'll lean with Arkansas State and Over 53 points looks like a profitable investment.
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