Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For STEELERS (-10.5) @ LIONS

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 10, 2009

PITTSBURGH - OCTOBER 4:  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers throws the ball in the fourth quarter against the San Diego Chargers at Heinz Field on October 4, 2009 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Pittsburgh (-10.5) 28 DETROIT 18

Over/Under Total: 44.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-11

My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 15 points in this game, but that's assuming the Steelers play at their normal high level. That's probably not likely with Pittsburgh coming off 4 consecutive challenging games, who won't be able to avoid an emotional letdown against the lowly Lions.

Pittsburgh is only 5-11-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2006, including 2-9-1 ATS after a win and 2-8 ATS against a non-division foe. Daunte Culpepper gets the start in place of injured rookie Matthew Stafford and that's likely to mean fewer interceptions (Stafford threw 6 picks in 3 1/2 games).

If Pittsburgh doesn't suffer a letdown then they will likely cover the spread, but the Steelers apply to a negative 27-64-3 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Detroit applies to a 90-36-4 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that plays on teams after losing by 20 points or more (there is obviously more to that angle that just that).

With the math favoring Pittsburgh and the situation favoring Detroit I'll avoid this game.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

I have 9 NCAA Best Bets and 2 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 1 NFL Best Bet and 2 NFL Strong Opinions!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal