CAROLINA (-3.5) 23 Washington 19
Carolina has started the season at 0-3 after going 12-4 last year and I expect the Panthers to start playing better now that they've had a bye week to stop the free fall. Winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 23-7 ATS following their bye week, so the Panthers should come out with renewed enthusiasm today and that should be enough to get past the struggling Redskins as long as they don't continue being -2.7 in turnover margin per game. Washington lost to Detroit and barely beat winless teams St. Louis and Tampa Bay, so visiting what should be a focused Carolina team does not bode well for the Skins.
Despite their low scoring games (29.5 total points average), Washington is actually average offensively (5.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and worse than average defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average team), so the total on this game is probably lower than it should be.
My math model only favors Carolina by 2 1/2 points, but Carolina should play better than they have and I'll call for a 4 point victory. I also like the over (37.5 points).
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