Minnesota (-9.5) 23 ST. LOUIS 13
The Rams are in bad shape offensively with just one legitimate play maker (RB Steven Jackson) now that top WR Laurent Robinson is out for the season. St. Louis has averaged just 4.3 yards per play this season and managed just 3.1 yppl last week against the Niners in their first game without Robinson.
Robinson averaged a decent 7.3 yards on the 23 passes intended for him and the other Rams' wide receivers are averaging a pathetic 4.8 ypa, so the drop-off in the already bad pass attack was expected and has nothing to do with Kyle Boller being the quarterback (Marc Bulger is no better). With no pass attack to worry about the Vikings can concentrate on defending Jackson, who is averaging a solid 4.4 ypr despite facing teams that would allow just 4.1 ypr to an average back.
Minnesota isn't quite as dominant against the run as they've been in recent years, but they've still allowed just 3.7 ypr to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team. St. Louis is going to need a big day from Jackson, but that's not likely to happen.
Brett Favre and the Vikings' offense is still below average on a yards per play basis (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but they've been effective in their ball control scheme with Favre having been intercepted just 1 time in 4 games.
The Rams have allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team, so Minnesota should move the ball at a decent rate - although I don't see a huge offensive output here since Favre has no reason to throw the ball downfield as he did last week.
My math model favors Minnesota by 14 1/2 points but this is a letdown situation for the Vikings, who apply to a 15-50-2 ATS situation. I'll pass on this one.
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