NY GIANTS (-14.5) 27 Oakland 10May 29, 2016
The Giants looked pretty impressive in winning 3 straight road games, but the Giants are 19-2 ATS in their last 21 games away from home and just 6-6 ATS as a home favorite of 4 points or more in the same time frame. Also, teams that win 3 consecutive road games are only 1-6-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points when they return home. It's also risky laying more than 14 points in an NFL game regardless of how big the disparity between two teams appears to be. Road underdogs of more than 14 points are 60-41-3 ATS in the NFL since 1980, including 9-1 ATS recently.
The problem with all that technical analysis is that Oakland's offense pathetic offense (3.9 yppl) doesn't figure to do much against a Giant's defesne that has allowed just 4.5 yppl for the season and held bad offensive teams Tampa Bay and Kansas City to an average of 140 total yards at 2.9 yppl and 8 points the last two weeks.
New York has proven vulnerable to the run (5.6 ypr allowed), so it's possible that the Raiders can finally get their ground attack working (they miss injured G Robert Gallery) even with Darren McFadden out (he's only averaging 3.1 ypr and Michael Bush is averaging 4.0 ypr). Oakland is decent defensively but they are on the field for way too many plays (68 per game is 6 over the league average) and tend to get worn down.
It's actually an accomplishment to be average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) despite playing so many plays per game. New York's offense will probably get conservative with Eli Manning nursing an injured heel and I expect Manning to leave this game early if the Giants build a big lead, so back-door cover is a possibility for the Raiders. H
owever, I'll still have to lean with the Giants slightly given that my math model favors the G-Men by 24 1/2 points (with Manning playing the entire game).
Note: Eli Manning has been downgraded to questionable. When I know more about his status I will update the analysis and my math model.
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