#1 Florida (-8.0) 30 #4 LSU 16
Florida 27 LSU 17 (if Tebow does not play for Florida)
Tim Tebow is a game time decision as to whether he'll play after suffering a concussion two weeks ago against Kentucky. I'd prefer Florida in this game even if Tebow doesn't play, as the Gators' dominating defense (3.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit) will not give up many points to a mediocre LSU offense that has averaged just 5.4 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team).
The Tigers do have a good defense that's yielded 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit, but Florida has averaged 7.8 yppl this season and rates at 2.2 yppl better than average offensively with Tebow in the game. My math model gives Florida a 58.4% chance of covering at -8 points with Tebow playing at his normal level and the math would still favor the Gators with backup John Brantley starting for the Gators (52.5% to cover).
There are some general situations that favor LSU in this game as a home underdog, but the Tigers are now 0-15 ATS in conference home games following a victory under coach Les Miles.
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