Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For UTAH STATE (-10.5) @ NMST (STRONG OPINION)

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 10, 2009

PROVO, UT - SEPTEMBER 23:  Kevin Robinson #6 of the Utah State Aggies runs with the ball against the Brigham Young Cougars on September 23, 2006 at La Vell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.  (Photo By Kent Horner/Getty Images)

Utah St. (-10.5) 36 NEW MEXICO ST. 20

Over/Under Total: 49.5
05:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-10

New Mexico State has the worst offense in Division 1A football, averaging a pathetic 4.0 yards per play despite facing teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team.

The Aggies are also bad defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yppl against an average team) and I don't see them hanging close to a better than average Utah State has out-gained an average schedule of teams 6.3 yppl to 6.1 yppl while quarterback Diondre Borel has thrown just 1 interception in 4 games.

The reason I passed this game as a Best Bet is due to a negative 27-73-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that applies to Utah State as a double-digit road favorite.

However, that angle barely applies and the math strongly favors Utah State in this game. I'll consider Utah State a Strong Opinion at -11 or less.

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