Hawaii Warriors Football logoHawaii Warriors Football

Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For HAWAII (+10) Vs. FRESNO STATE

GAINESVILLE, FL - AUGUST 30:  Quarterback Greg Alexander #12 of the Hawaii Warriors hands off the ball during a game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on August 30, 2008 in Gainesville, Florida.  (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 10, 2009

Fresno St. (-10.0) 36 HAWAII 31

Over/Under Total: 57.5
08:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-10

This looks like a high scoring game to me, as Hawaii averages 7.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and Fresno State rates at 1.1 yppl better than average offensively.

The Warriors will be starting a new quarterback in place of injured Greg Alexander, but head coach McMackin says he's got a lot of confidence in new quarterback Bryant Moniz, who has completed just 50% of his 12 pass attempts, but has averaged 12.1 yards per attempt.

I'll assume that the difference between Moniz and Alexander is the same as the average difference between a starter and a backup, which still would rate Hawaii's pass attack as very good. Fresno has allowed 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would average 6.5 yppp), so Moniz should move the ball through the air pretty easily.

Scoring points with all their yards has been a problem for Hawaii, who is averaging just 25.5 points despite racking up 463 yards per game.

Hawaii has a defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average and Fresno will also have success moving the ball. My math model predicts 67 total points in this game and I like Hawaii and the Over in this one.

Where can I comment?

Stay on your game

Latest news, insights, and forecasts on your teams across leagues.

Choose Teams
Get it on the App StoreGet it on Google Play

Real-time news for your teams right on your mobile device.

Download
Copyright © 2017 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BleacherReport.com is part of Bleacher Report – Turner Sports Network, part of the Turner Sports and Entertainment Network. Certain photos copyright © 2017 Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Getty Images is strictly prohibited. AdChoices