Fresno St. (-10.0) 36 HAWAII 31
This looks like a high scoring game to me, as Hawaii averages 7.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and Fresno State rates at 1.1 yppl better than average offensively.
The Warriors will be starting a new quarterback in place of injured Greg Alexander, but head coach McMackin says he's got a lot of confidence in new quarterback Bryant Moniz, who has completed just 50% of his 12 pass attempts, but has averaged 12.1 yards per attempt.
I'll assume that the difference between Moniz and Alexander is the same as the average difference between a starter and a backup, which still would rate Hawaii's pass attack as very good. Fresno has allowed 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would average 6.5 yppp), so Moniz should move the ball through the air pretty easily.
Scoring points with all their yards has been a problem for Hawaii, who is averaging just 25.5 points despite racking up 463 yards per game.
Hawaii has a defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average and Fresno will also have success moving the ball. My math model predicts 67 total points in this game and I like Hawaii and the Over in this one.