East Carolina (-6.5) 27 SMU 26
East Carolina has struggled offensively with veteran Patrick Pinkney having a down year with a receiving corp that is not as good as in past years, and the Pirates are a risky play as a road favorite (just 3-8 ATS as a favorite away from home under coach Skip Holtz).
SMU is actually a better team from a compensated yards per play perspective (0.6 yppl worse than average overall compared to ECU's -1.1 yppl overall rating), but Mustangs' quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell continues to throw interceptions at a record career pace, as he's thrown 33 picks on 597 pass attempts (5.5%) including 10 already this season in 4 games.
Even with my math model projecting 2.4 interceptions for Mitchell, the math still favors SMU to cover as a home dog.
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