Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For SMU (+6.5) Vs. EAST CAROLINA

Robert StollCorrespondent IApril 3, 2017

East Carolina (-6.5) 27 SMU 26

Over/Under Total: 54.0
05:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-10

East Carolina has struggled offensively with veteran Patrick Pinkney having a down year with a receiving corp that is not as good as in past years, and the Pirates are a risky play as a road favorite (just 3-8 ATS as a favorite away from home under coach Skip Holtz).

SMU is actually a better team from a compensated yards per play perspective (0.6 yppl worse than average overall compared to ECU's -1.1 yppl overall rating), but Mustangs' quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell continues to throw interceptions at a record career pace, as he's thrown 33 picks on 597 pass attempts (5.5%) including 10 already this season in 4 games.

Even with my math model projecting 2.4 interceptions for Mitchell, the math still favors SMU to cover as a home dog.

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