Dr. Bob's Betting Advice For SMU (+6.5) Vs. EAST CAROLINA

Robert Stoll

Correspondent Written on October 10, 2009

DALLAS - NOVEMBER 29: Defensive end Justin Rogers #40 of the Southern Methodist University Mustangs on the field during the game against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs on November 29, 2003 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. TCU won 20-13. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

(Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

East Carolina (-6.5) 27 SMU 26

Over/Under Total: 54.0

05:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-10

East Carolina has struggled offensively with veteran Patrick Pinkney having a down year with a receiving corp that is not as good as in past years, and the Pirates are a risky play as a road favorite (just 3-8 ATS as a favorite away from home under coach Skip Holtz).

SMU is actually a better team from a compensated yards per play perspective (0.6 yppl worse than average overall compared to ECU's -1.1 yppl overall rating), but Mustangs' quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell continues to throw interceptions at a record career pace, as he's thrown 33 picks on 597 pass attempts (5.5%) including 10 already this season in 4 games.

Even with my math model projecting 2.4 interceptions for Mitchell, the math still favors SMU to cover as a home dog.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

I have 9 NCAA Best Bets and 2 NCAA Strong Opinions this week!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

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written on October 10, 2009 Preview/Prediction