Georgia 24 TENNESSEE (-1.5) 20
Georgia is a better all around team than Tennessee, who is only a great defensive team.
The Vols only allow 4.5 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense, but Kiffin's team is just average offensively and has been poor on special teams.
Georgia is more balance, as the Bulldogs are good offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl - although I rate them at +0.9 yppl), good defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) and very good on special teams.
My math model gives the Bulldogs a solid 54.3% chance of covering at +1 1/2 points and Georgia applies to a 51-11 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation.
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