Vanderbilt (-10.5) 21 ARMY 14
Vanderbilt has a good defense, allowing just 4.3 yppl to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average team, but the Commodores haven't been good against the run (4.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team).
That weakness sets up well for an Army option attack that runs the ball almost 80% of the time and will likely do so even more in this game given how bad their pass attack is likely to be against Vandy.
My math model takes into account such match-ups and gives Army a 58% chance of covering the spread in this game.
Unfortunately, the Cadets also apply to a negative 17-58 ATS home underdog situation that will keep me from playing them.
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