NORTHWESTERN (-18.5) 38 Miami Ohio 20August 11, 2016
Miami-Ohio has been beaten by an average score of 11.6 to 40.8 in 5 games, but a lot of that has to do with the Redhawks being -14 in turnover margin. Miami would still be a bad team even if their turnover margin was even, but they may be a bit underrated since they're not likely to continue their ridiculous turnover pace.
Miami is also better offensively with Zac Dysert at quarterback and my math model gives Miami-Ohio a 56.5% chance of covering against an overrated Northwestern.
However, the Wildcats apply to a 97-28-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that has a 55% chance of working for them. I'd advise leaving this one alone.
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