Dr. Bob Previews NORTHWESTERN (-18.5) Vs. MIAMI OHIO

Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 10, 2009

EVANSTON, IL - NOVEMBER 08:  Quarterback Mike Kafka #13 of the Northwestern Wildcats passes against of the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ryan Stadium on November 8, 2008 in Evanston, Illinois  (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

NORTHWESTERN (-18.5) 38 Miami Ohio 20

Over/Under Total: 54.0
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-10

Miami-Ohio has been beaten by an average score of 11.6 to 40.8 in 5 games, but a lot of that has to do with the Redhawks being -14 in turnover margin. Miami would still be a bad team even if their turnover margin was even, but they may be a bit underrated since they're not likely to continue their ridiculous turnover pace.

Miami is also better offensively with Zac Dysert at quarterback and my math model gives Miami-Ohio a 56.5% chance of covering against an overrated Northwestern.

However, the Wildcats apply to a 97-28-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that has a 55% chance of working for them. I'd advise leaving this one alone.

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