Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 10, 2009

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - SEPTEMBER 20:  Quarterback Dan LeFevour #13 of the Central Michigan Chippewas runs the ball past Ryan Kerrigan #94 of the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium on September 20, 2008 in West Lafayette, Indiana.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

CENTRAL MICH (-22.5) 37 Eastern Mich 13

Over/Under Total: 54.5
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-10

Central Michigan should rack up the rushing yards in this game against a porous Eastern Michigan defense that's allowed 7.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would only average 4.2 yprp against an average team. However, the Eagles have been surprisingly good against the pass, yielding just 4.3 yards per pass play. If the Chippewas stick to the ground they should move the ball very well in this game and CMU quarterback Dan LeFevour is good at taking off an running if he can't find an open receiver.

It looks like the injury to veteran quarterback Andy Schmitt could be a positive for the Eagles, as experienced backup Kyle McMahon has been much better than Schmitt so far. Eastern Michigan is still bad on offense even with improved quarterbacking and the Chippewas are better than average defensively but my math model only favors Central by 19 1/2 points. I'll still lean slightly with the Chippewas based on a very good 97-28-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator.

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