West Virginia (-10.0) 35 SYRACUSE 22
West Virginia is a better team than they've shown, as the Mountaineers have out-gained their opponents 7.1 yards per play to 4.7 yppl yet have only out-scored their foes by 7.0 points per game. The reason for the discrepancy is averaging -2 in fumbles lost margin, which is mostly random bad luck and not a sign of future turnover issues.
With that being the case the Mounties appear to be underrated and my math model favors West Virginia by 13 points even though the Orange are equipped to defend West Virginia's good running attack with a defensive front that's allowed just 3.7 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team). S
yracuse is struggling offensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl), so West Virginia should eventually pull away as long as they don't continue to fumble the ball away.
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