VIRGINIA (-6.5) 27 Indiana 17
Virginia lost their first 3 games of the season before upsetting North Carolina 16-3 last week as a 12 point dog. The defense led the way by limiting the Tarheel to just 3.0 yards per play. That unit has actually been good all season and the Cavaliers are 1.1 yppl better than average defensively through 4 games (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team).
The Virginia offense is 0.6 yppl worse than average with Jameel Sewell at quarterback, but they're still 0.5 yppl better than average overall from the line of scrimmage. Indiana, meanwhile, is average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit).
My math model favors Virginia by 9 1/2 thanks to their superior defense.