Week 5: NFL Picks & Predictions

Last season, I finished the year right below 80 percent on my picks. My picks were solid all year, and earned me mention on some of the biggest sports bettors in the world websites, including Brandon Lang and J.R. Miller, among others.

Now, I don't pick against the spread, I pick the straight up winners. So, keep that in mind as you look at all of these.

This has been a topsy-turvy season thus far, and I'm slowly coming out of that wicked bad early-season slump caused by Week 2's picks, and hope to get to 12 wins this week (same as last week).

Record from Previous Week (4): 12-2

Record coming into Week (5): 43-19 (69.35 percent)

Overall record: 43-19

Let's get it on!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Last week, Cincinnati almost seemed to regress from the previous two games, against the lowly Cleveland Browns.

Carson Palmer was very average and the Bengal running game, which sports top five running back Cedric Benson, wasn't active at all. Benson only amassed 74 yards on 18 carries, while Palmer was 23-for-44 with 230 yards and two TDs (barely 50 percent).

This week, the sledding for the Bengals gets much tougher as they face the stingy Ravens defense.

Cincy will challenge, but, should this turn into a shoot-out, the Ravens are now equipped with a strong enough offense to match anyone in the league. I don't expect that'll happen though.

VERDICT: Ravens win at home, and move closer to locking down the AFC North.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers

Right now, the Carolina Panthers are NOT a good team.

That said, neither is Washington. Both teams have serious questions hovering over their heads right now, both offensively and defensively.

Carolina is coming off of the bye week, and will surely be rested and ready to go. And, with the Redskins barely sneaking by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, they look to be pretty vulnerable right now.

I expect DeAngelo Williams to come out swinging and running hard against the Skins defense, which currently ranks 22nd against the run.

In the end, I think this is a close game. But I think at home, Carolina will give themselves a chance to win

VERDICT: Carolina wins a close game.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is a team that is dreadfully bad right now. Not because of their cast of players, but because of injuries and also horrid offensive play calling on the part of Alex Van Pelt.

Terrell Owens has been an afterthought in the minds of many people. Marshawn Lynch is back, but Fred Jackson may be the best RB on that roster. Trent Edwards looks worse than J.P. Losman ... if that's possible. Furthermore, the defense got bit by an injury bug that's obviously the size of a sperm whale.

They're in trouble right now.

Conversely, Cleveland showed signs of life after four horrid weeks of football under Eric Mangini.

They have nowhere to go but up.

Derek Anderson is back under center, and obviously can move the ball more effectively in that offense than Quinn could. Jerome Harrison ran for over 120 yards last week and just may have made Jamal Lewis expendable.

Terrell Owens and Fred Jackson will be heavily involved against that Browns porous defense. However, I think ... and I feel weird saying this ... Cleveland will outscore them.

VERDICT: T.O. and Jackson have big days, but Anderson leads the Browns to a victory in Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions

The Steelers appear to be set to get back the heart and soul of their Defense this week against Detroit.

That's HUGE for this team, which has had problems shutting teams down when they've had a big lead (see last week's game vs San Diego).

The Lions are likely going to be without Matthew Stafford. So in comes Daunte Culpepper, who believe it or not, is a serviceable guy. That said, he's not going to have a field day against James Harrison and the rest of the Steelers D.

Rashard Mendenhall and Santonio Holmes should have big days against the Detroit.

VERDICT: Pittsburgh wins an easy game at Ford Field

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Cowboys lost in the waning moments against Denver. It happened on the Broncos' second most unlikely play of the year, when Orton connected with Brandon Marshall who put on a show en route to the end zone.

The Cowboys were sloppy in that game, and for some reason abandoned the running game after gashing Denver's D with it early and often.

I think this week will be a little different.

Marion Barber will get plenty of work, as will Tashard Choice as the Cowboys run all over the Chiefs ... err ... little indians. Tony Romo will get involved, but it'll be only to get him some confidence back.

VERDICT: Matt Cassel and the Little Indians will have no chance of keeping up with the Cowboys. Dallas wins big.

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams

The Vikings go as AP goes ... or if Brett Favre faces his old team.

This week, the Vikings won't need Favre like they did last week, as Green Bay rendered AP fairly useless with their stout run D.

Simply put here, AP runs all day, then Chester Taylor runs, and the Vikes keep Steven Jackson at bay, holding him scoreless for five straight weeks.

VERDICT: Minny wins relatively easy.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants

Last week I projected a big day for Brandon Jacobs, and he was just OK against a terrible Chiefs D.

This week, the Giants face their second cream puff team in consecutive weeks. This time it's the Oakland Raiders.

Nnamdi Asomugha will render Steve Smith pretty useless in this game, and other than that, it's going to be liked shooting fish in a barrel for David Carr, Eli Manning or whomever plays for the G-men.

VERDICT: The Giants win easily, and it wouldn't matter where it was, the Raiders are that bad.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelhia Eagles

This one shakes out like this:

Tampa bay is really bad on both sides of the ball.

Philadelphia is Really good defensively, and pretty good on offense.

You do the math ...

VERDICT: Philly wins pretty easy.

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

The Falcons are coming off a bye week, and have had a little time to heal and refine what they've been doing on offense.

San Francisco is coming off a cakewalk game against the lowly St. Louis Rams, and this could be a let down scenario for the 49ers.

Anytime a team has a chance to rest for a week and prepare for basically two weeks against another team, the advantage is decidedly pointed in their direction.

San Francisco had a very solid D, ranking 10th against the pass and fourth against the run.

However, the offensive woes of this team concern me a little bit. Gore is still out, and Shaun Hill is about as average as they come.

Conversely, Matt Ryan is a bright young star with a rocket arm, Mike Turner is a legit RB and there's help on the outside with White and Jenkins. Add to that Tony Gonzales, and it looks pretty good for Atlanta.

VERDICT: It will be a close game, but the Falcons win on the road.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

The "Sultan of Stubble" Kurt Warner, and the "Dynamic Duo" of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are rested and ready to go at it with Houston this week.

There's been a hitch in Arizona's giddy-up thus far. I expect the Cardinals to try and get the running game involved more, and I look for Beanie Wells to get an opportunity to show he can carry the load, as Tim Hightower just isn't the solution they were hoping for in Arizona.

This will be a high scoring game, and will probably come down to who scores last as the Cards have the 20th ranked defense and the Texans have the 25th overall defense. Houston is particularly bad against the pass.

VERDICT: Cards win at home

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

The old school AFL uni's will be in full effect, and for those of you that haven't seen Denver's AFL uniform's, let me tell ya ... they're freaking nasty!!!

About the game though ...

Last week I predicted that the Broncos would lose to the Cowboys, and probably would have if they had tackled Brandon Marshall instead of letting him make their D look like chumps for trying.

Moss will likely have Champ Bailey locked on him for most, if not the entirety of the game, however, Randy Moss is ALWAYS open ... even when he's covered, and I expect the Pats to challenge bailey a little in this game.

Last week Orton got a few lucky breaks, and even admitted that himself, when he wasn't picked off and should have been. This week, the Pats will make him pay for those mistakes.

VERDICT: Pats win a close game

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks

David Garrard last week, torched the Titans D for more than 300 yards, three TDs and 40 yards rushing.

Maybe the biggest advantage he has is the fact that MJD has now firmly settled into the starters role, and he's getting consistent and productive help from the RB spot, something that wasn't happening early on.

Seattle looks to be getting Matt Hasselbeck back, which could help them since the Jags pass D is ranked 31st in the league. That said, I think they'll do whatever they can to make his day a tough one.

VERDICT: With no running game and facing a team that's multi-dimensional offensively, the Seahawks lose at home.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

There is no QB, or offensive team that is playing better than Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

Tennessee is struggling, and while I have a hard time believing that they're going to be 0-5, I just don't know how they're going to beat the Colts.

The Titans will run ... a lot ... and they'll try to throw, but Collins has looked every bit his age this year, unlike last year.

VERDICT: Indy gets a big road win, and the chants to start Vince Young start getting louder next week in Tennessee.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins - MNF

This is going to be a great game, let me just start by saying that.

The Dolphins are running the ball better than ANYONE else in the NFL right now, and Chad Henne seems to be capable on managing the game and doing just enough to NOT lose.

The Jets have a great D, and are stout against both the run AND the pass, ranking in the top 10 in both categories.

With the acquisition of Braylon Edwards this week, NY immediately get better at the WR spot.Mark Sanchez now someone to throw it up to when in the red zone.

All that said, I think the Dolphins will do enough offensively and defensively to give themselves a chance. If they can pressure Sanchez, they can get him rattled, which is what we saw last week. I expect they'll do just that.

VERDICT: Miami wins at Home in a very close, edge of your seat kind of game.