Problem No. 1: The Orioles Need a Legitimate Power Bat To Give Markakis Some Protection

The Problem

In his years with the Baltimore Orioles, first baseman Aubrey Huff was a solid run-producer, but really wore out his welcome. He had a monstrous 2008 campaign, as he drove in 108 runs, leading the team.

This year, he started off quite well, and was on pace for a similar season, but disappeared down the stretch. Through Aug. 16, he had 13 homers, 72 RBI, a .253 average, and .321 OBP.

While it wasn't close to his 2008 performance, he was still driving in runs. However, the O's decided to trade him to the Detroit Tigers for their No. 10 overall prospect, relief pitcher Brett Jacobson.

In my opinion, it was a great trade for the O's. Huff didn't do anything with Detroit in the heat of a playoff run, as he hit .189 with 13 RBI in 40 games. Jacobson, however, gives the O's a power arm out of the bullpen that they'll need in the future.

But there's a problem. Without Huff, the rest of the lineup is missing some protection. Since Huff's departure, star right fielder Nick Markakis is hitting just .259, as opposed to .305 before the trade. I'm sure Markakis wants an intimidating power bat behind him in the order, so who will it be?

There certainly are plenty of big, home-run hitting first baseman out there who can bat fourth every day. But look at the free agent market. Everyone is either old or simply just not that good (Rich Aurilia, Carlos Delgado, Huff, Adam LaRoche, Daryle Ward).

 

The Solution

I think people may be over complicating this issue. If there's anybody out of the free agent core I'd like, it'd have to be LaRoche, a 30-year-old who hit 25 homers this year. But if the O's can't get him, I think it'd be very smart to not even change anything.

Luke Scott showed last year he can be a competent first baseman, and with the way Felix Pie came into his own late in the season, my decision would be to make Scott the full-time first baseman, Pie the left fielder, and Nolan Reimold DH. But this isn't what affects the batting order. Who will bat cleanup?

It's simple. Matt Wieters. Wieters showed why he came in with so much hype, and finished the year around .290 with 43 RBI, which is simply amazing for a rookie catcher.

So then, you'd have the top three of Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Markakis, followed by Wieters, Reimold, Scott, Pie, an unknown third baseman, and Cesar Izturis. Sounds quite good to me. But, if the O's can somehow, someway trade for Adrian Gonzalez (40 HR, 99 RBI) or Prince Fielder (46 HR, 141 RBI), two elite first basemen on the trade block, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

But if teams ask for too much, it'd be wise to keep the continuity, but just switch things up a little bit.

 

Problem No. 2: Melvin Mora Is Gone, So Who Plays Third Base?

The Problem

Around the league, Mora is very well-respected. At 37, he's certainly had a long career, and in it, has 164 home runs.

In 2008, he was an RBI machine, hitting .285 with 104 runs batted in, and continued to play good defense. In 2009, the defense was still there, but the production wasn't. For a while, he was an automatic out.

He finished the year with a .260 average, eight homers, 48 RBI, and a .321 OBP. At 37, it doesn't appear he'll ever start in the majors again. The O's have basically implied they won't pick up his 2010 option, so he's out of the picture.

So who do the O's go with? Really, they don't have many viable options. It's not as if they have an Evan Longoria waiting in the wing. There are only a few guys I could see taking over.

Ty Wigginton, who played mostly as a backup corner infielder in '09, had a solid finish to the year, which he often does, and finished with a .273 average, 11 homers, and 41 RBI. Except for that, nothing jumps out at me.

Justin Turner is another option. He hit over .300 in Triple A, and showed solid plate discipline in his short stint with the big club.

In the minors, the O's top third base prospect is Josh Bell, who did very well after getting traded to Baltimore, as he hit .286 with nine homers and 24 RBI in 33 games. But remember: He's in Double A. No need to rush.

 

The Solution

The first choice is Wigginton, being that he's actually proved something consistently, unlike Turner, who hasn't had a chance to, or Bell, who hasn't even made his debut yet.

Looking at the free agent class, a few names jump out. Adrian Beltre, at 31, certainly has some years left in the tank, and while he hit just .265 with 44 RBI this year in 111 games, everyone knows the guy is a solid run producer. He's proven that. In his career, he has 250 homers. I think another guy the O's will find interesting—along with many other teams—is Chone Figgins. In 158 games this season, he hit .298 with 42 steals for the Angels.

Immediately, that's a guy the O's would like. Figgins would cost a lot, but he's not a Boras client, so it won't require a ground-breaking deal. It would make sense, and if the O's can't get him, I think the immediate choice would be Ty Wigginton, but it's very complicated.

If the O's chase Figgins and fail to sign him, Wigginton knows the O's tried to replace him, which could cause for some trust issues between him and the team. But I think Figgins should be the No. 1 choice, with Wigginton as a fall-back option.

 

Problem No. 3: Who Will the No. 5 Starter Be?

The Problem

For the first time in what seems like a century, the O's go into the offseason knowing what most of their rotation will look like the next year.

In most 2009 preseason baseball magazines, writers thought the Orioles rotation would consist of Jeremy Guthrie, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson, Matt Albers, and Hayden Penn. Not only was that wrong throughout the year, it was wrong at the start of the season. And that's not to knock the analysts. It just goes to show how unpredictable—and bad—the O's rotation has been over the last decade.

But now, the O's have some stability. They know who the top four will be next year. In no particular order, it'll be Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jeremy Guthrie. But the No. 5 guy? It's "TBD" at this point.

It could be anybody. Jason Berken is a guy I root for, considering he earned a callup despite not even getting invited to Spring Training. And despite all his struggles this year, I've seen some improvement from him.

But will he make the rotation in 2010? I have my doubts.

Looking at the free agents, there aren't any guys who are worth a fortune, but guys who catch my eye include Brad Penny, Livan Hernandez, Ben Sheets, Joel Pineiro, John Lackey, and Andy Pettitte.

None of these guys will win Cy Youngs, nor are they in their primes. But I think the No. 5 would be a great spot for a vet to step in who has been there. A guy who really knows pitching and what it takes to do it at the big league level.

 

The Solution

This is, by far, the most complex problem. There are so many options. Personally, I think it'd be best for the O's to pick up Lackey, a true gamer who has over 100 wins in his career, and still has a lot left in the tank.

If the O's aren't interested—or can't buy—one of those free agents, there are still options. With a strong Spring Training, just about anybody could take the spot. It could be a hot prospect like Jake Arrieta or Troy Patton, or even an unsung guy like David Pauley, Berken, or even David Hernandez. Time will tell.

As I said, I think the best option is Lackey. Not only does he know the game, the hitters, and what he's doing on the mound, he's a very good pitcher—for any age.

With the Angels this year, he went 11-8, and is 102-71 with a 3.83 ERA in his career. He averages just 2.64 walks per nine innings, and I think it'd be an extremely smart move to bring him in. He has even had nice things to say about the O's in the past, so there's speculation that he even wants to come to Baltimore.

But, obviously, time will tell on this.

 

Problem No. 4: The Bullpen

The Problem

In my opinion, this is the biggest problem because there are so many holes.

Many O's fans have overreacted. They have done so in thinking that the George Sherrill trade won't ever benefit the Orioles. However, in return for "Georgie" the O's got two top flight prospects, 3B Josh Bell and SP Steve Johnson. But, the loss of Sherrill definitely did hurt the O's 'pen as a whole.

With the O's, the closer was having a dominant year in 2009, with a 2.40 ERA, 20 saves, and 0-1 record. He got traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the closer role was taken over by Jim Johnson, who is bad in his new role, and really doesn't look like the same guy.

But the problems don't stop there. Overall, the O's bullpen was a struggle. Danys Baez had a pretty good year, with a 4.02 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Cla Meredith, acquired from the Padres, has been solid for the most part. After getting traded to the Orioles, he posted a 3.77 ERA.

But the trio of Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, and Chris Ray is tough to watch. Albers had a 3.49 ERA in 2008, mostly out of the bullpen, but his season was cut short with an injury. He was expected to bounce back. So much for that.

In 2009, he was very bad, with a 5.51 ERA and four blown saves. Sarfate, who also had a season cut short in 2008. He too, was expected to bounce back. And, he too, disappointed. He missed most of the year, and finished with a 5.09 ERA. Ray was the most promising of all. He missed all of 2008, and some were saying he could be the closer in 2009. But he was horrible, posting a 7.27 ERA, along with a 2.01 WHIP.

 

The Solution

It's hard to "fix" a bad bullpen without buying guys, and the O's might not even have to do that. While Albers, Sarfate, and Ray all were brutal this year, but I'm not ready to give up on them just yet.

Give Sarfate a chance. He was respectable in 2008 as a reliever, and we saw the old Dennis late in 2009. In fact, after missing four months with an injury, he came back strong, and allowed just one run in his last nine-and-two-thirds innings.

Albers isn't a guy who will ever be a shut down reliever, more of a ground ball guy. I don't think we'll see him take the league by storm in '10, but improvement? I expect it. As far as the closer situation goes, it's very complicated.

I'm a huge backer of Kam Mickolio, who has electric stuff. He can pitch in the 98 mph range, which certainly sounds like a shut-down closer. He wore down as the year went on and missed about a month with "dead arm."

To back that up: In his first seven appearances, he allowed three hits, no runs, walked two, and struck out 11. In his last four: He allowed eight hits, four runs, walked four, and struck out three in four innings. He has closer stuff, and I definitely give him a long look.

As far as free agents go, Rafael Soriano catches my eye. He has a 2.92 career ERA, and had 102 strikeouts and 27 saves this year. The middle relief guys intrigue me.

I would think the O's will keep Danys Baez and/or Mark Hendrickson, guys who provide stable relief. As a reliever, Hendrickson had a 3.75 ERA.

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It's really that simple.

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