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Desperate to make amends for its 1-6 bowl performance and reverse its reputation as a degenerating football conference, this is not where the Big Ten expected to be.

As college football reaches the meat of the league schedule, computer master and BCS contributor Jeff Sagarin ranks the Big Ten last among the six major conferences.

Sagarin Conference Ratings*

1. SEC

2. Pac-10

3. ACC

4. Big12

5. Big East

6. Big Ten

7. I-A Independents

8. Mountain West

9. WAC

10. CUSA

When you consider the fact that to date, the Big Ten's signature win is Michigan at home over Notre Dame, it's easy to understand why.

What has to be even more discouraging for the conference is the lack of marquee opportunities remaining. Between the 11 programs, there are only 10 non-conference games left in 2009. Only two, Illinois at Cincinnati in November and Indiana at Virginia this weekend, represent a clash of BCS-conference teams (a description that only loosely applies to the Hoosiers and Cavaliers).

So the odds of the Big Ten advancing from that sixth position are slim, as conference teams will only cannibalize themselves the rest of the way.

Speaking of the BCS, the initial standings will be published a week from Sunday, and Sagarin's ELO-CHESS ratings are one of six computer polls included in the ranking formula. Unlike his overall ratings, ELO-CHESS is purely a measure of winning and losing (given a strength of schedule), and does not take margin of victory into account.

Sagarin Team Ratings (ELO-CHESS in parenthesis)

1. USC (4)

2. Alabama (2)

3. Florida (10)

4. LSU (1)

5. Oregon (11)

6. Boise St (6)

7. Virginia Tech (8)

8. Ohio St (15)

9. Iowa (3)

10. Texas (16)

11. Cincinnati (5)

12. Auburn (7)

13. Miami (9)

14. TCU (12)

15. South Florida (18)

You'll notice that in the bold ELO-CHESS rankings, LSU, Alabama, Iowa, and Cincinnati are very buoyant relative to their standing in other polls, by virtue of their undefeated records. Computers can be very unforgiving when it comes to loses.

Therefore, it's also significant that USC is the highest-standing one-loss team at No. 4, well ahead of Virginia Tech at No. 8.

Overall, the SEC leads the ELO-CHESS with four top-10 programs. The ACC has a pair in Virginia Tech and Miami. Iowa is the Big Ten's lone representative. Likewise for Cincinnati and the Big East, USC and the Pac-10. 

The Big 12 is actually the least represented conference in the ELO-CHESS ratings.  Texas' weak early-season schedule warrants just the 16th spot. Oklahoma's pair of early-season losses haven't helped, nor did Houston's upset of Oklahoma State. For the first time in a long time, the South Division isn't pulling its weight!

Using the Sagarin ratings as our guide, what does this all mean?

First, it's clear that the SEC will once-again have a reservation for the BCS championship game, barring a complete and widespread meltdown.

It appears that despite the loss to Washington, when the BCS standings are unveiled, USC should be well-positioned relative to Texas, Boise State, Virginia Tech, and Miami. The Pac-10's strength should only help the Trojans from here on out.

So long as they continue to win, the Longhorns will ascend quickly once conference play begins this weekend. Likewise for the Florida Gators, whose No. 10 rating may be the most surprising of all.

Meanwhile, the Boise State Broncos are in a strong position, but of course have no margin for error.

The same could be said of Iowa, who is the only horse the Big Ten has in the national championship race. The fact that a narrow loss to USC has Ohio State at No. 15 in the ELO-CHESS speaks volumes about the Sagarin model views that conference.

*Sagarin Ratings published at USATODAY.com

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