2009 MLB Postseason: My Look Into The Crystal Ball

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m sick and tired of these know-it-all sports writers predicting how they think the postseason will play out. Usually they are tragically wrong with their predictions, and the worst part is they get paid to make them.

Then I thought to myself… I don’t get paid for this, but why not try to predict how the 2009 MLB postseason will play out and compare my picks to those of the “experts."

So, for your reading pleasure I present my predictions for how I see the entire postseason playing out…

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels

Angels won season series 5-4

When these two teams meet in the postseason it usually spells the end for the Angels, so why should this year be any different? This season’s Angels hit for average and get on base, which would explain why they scored so many runs. Their lineup is full of .300 hitters, pitching to them will be difficult. Additionally, Scott Kazmir brings a reliable arm to the Angels rotation and tends to pitch very well against the Red Sox and Yankees. The one glaring weakness for the Angels is the bullpen—where every Brian Fuentes outing is like a roller coaster ride.

Angels Player to Watch: Brian Fuentes, Closer. Fuentes led all of baseball this season with 46 saves, but he also sports a 4.06 ERA, not something you would like to see out of your closer. If the Angels are to finally get past the Red Sox this year, they need consistency from their “all-star” closer.

The Red Sox counter with an equally imposing lineup, and while they might not hit for average like the Angels, they can certainly hit the ball out of the park. David Ortiz might not boast his usual batting average, but he seems to have discovered the pop in his bat that was missing at the beginning of the season.

The Boston rotation will be headed by former playoff hero Josh Beckett as well the underrated Jon Lester and the emerging Clay Buckholz. Boston has a clear advantage in the closer department as they can trot out the established Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth inning.

Red Sox Player to Watch: Josh Beckett, SP. Normally Beckett is reliable as they come. However, after a shaky September and some minor injury issues, there is a small cloud of doubt surrounding Beckett. For the Red Sox to advance they need Beckett to pitch like his typical dominate self.

Prediction: Angles in five. This should be the best of the first round series, but in the end I think Beckett costs Boston one game and Buckholz’s inexperience could hurt them as well.

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

Yankees won season series 6-0

The Yankees have been on fire since the all-star break and it seems that they should coast through their first round series. You know what they say about assumptions. Keep in mind the Yankees have not been to the ALCS in five years, so nothing is a given. Sure the Yankees have arguably the best lineup in the game, but the starting rotation is where I look to a potential trouble spot. CC Sabathia had a great regular season, but he tends to struggle in the month of October. A.J. Burnett has had his share of ups and downs this year and he will be making his first playoff appearance, so it will be interesting to see which Burnett shows up.

Yankees Player to Watch: CC Sabathia, SP. Were you expecting maybe Alex Rodriguez? Look A-Rod is always under the microscope, but Sabathia has struggled mightily in the playoffs as he sports an ERA over seven. I think there is more pressure on Sabathia in the shorter series because he will most likely have to make two starts. Time to see if he was worth all the money.
Wow! Last night’s Twins—Tigers game was a great way to start the postseason. The Twins completed their incredible comeback by beating Detroit last night. Now they draw the Yankees who have owned them this season. The Twins may seem like they will be overmatched, but they have momentum on their side from their great play in September, plus they have the man who should win the 2009 AL MVP Award, Joe Mauer. The injury to Justin Morneau hurts, but Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and the streaking Delmon Young have been able to pick up the slack. The Twins rotation is not as good as it’s been in the past, but I’m sure if Carl Pavano gets a chance to pitch against his former team he will bring his “A” game.

Twins Player to Watch: Joe Mauer, C. As a Yankee fan, I think it would be ludicrous for anyone other than Mauer to win the MVP Award. He hit .365 with 28 homeruns and 96 RBIs, and did I mention he was a catcher! Those numbers are off the charts for any player, yet for someone who plays as demanding a position as Mauer does, those numbers are even more significant. He is the heart and soul of this Twins team, and if they are to pull of this improbable upset, Mauer must be the man to lead them.

Prediction: Yankees in four. Quite frankly this Yankee team has too much talent to lose to the Twins. That coupled with the fact that they had to play an extra game to get in the postseason this would be a tremendous upset to say the least. Of course it will be interesting to see how the Yanks respond if they lose Game 1.

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies won season series 4-2

These two teams met in the 2007 NLDS and it culminated with the Rockies sweeping the Phillies as they continued that ridiculous streak of winning 21 games in 22 days. This year’s version of the Rockies is streaking just like the 2007 squad, albeit not to the same extent. Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe lead a solid Rockies lineup that can score with the best of them. Plus they have some of the best pinch hitters in baseball with Seth Smith and the revived Jason Giambi. The Rockies starters are nothing to spectacular, as only Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA under four, but they will keep the team in games. Huston Street brings some much needed consistency to the closer’s role.

Rockies Player to Watch: Troy Tulowitzki, SS. Tulowitzki had a very forgettable first half of the season, but since June (hitting around .325 with 76 RBIs) he has begun to player like the franchise player that the Rockies envisioned him. It’s no coincidence that the Rockies began playing better when Tulowitzki started hitting. As he goes so go the Rockies.

The Phillies return to the postseason to defend their title from last year. They return almost the same cast of characters from last year’s team with the notable inclusion of former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee, along with rookie pitcher J.A. Happ form a formidable one-two punch. If Cole Hamels is able to get his act together then the Phillies rotation becomes scary good. This lineup is very potent; they had five players hit over 30 homeruns during the season.

Chase Utley has struggled mightily over the last month, and he needs to get it together for the Phillies to advance. The biggest concern for the Phillies is the mental state of their closer Brad Lidge who has pitched like a shell of his former self this season.

Phillies Player to Watch: Cole Hamels, SP. Again I’m going against the grain here and not picking Brad Lidge. Instead I opted for the fantasy team killer, Mr. Cole Hamels. Hamels took a big step back after his outstanding performance last year as he almost single handedly pitched the Phillies to the World Series. If he can find his rhythm again this postseason it could be curtains for the Rockies.

Prediction: Phillies in four. I just think the Phillies lineup will be too much for the Rockies pitchers to handle.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Cardinals won season series 5-2

This is a meeting of two of the traditional powers of the National League. The Dodgers got out of the gates faster than anybody else this season, but have cooled down substantially over the last month or so. The underrated Andre Either and Matt Kemp lead the Dodgers attack, both players put up excellent numbers this season and no one in baseball had more walkoff homeruns them my fantasy savior Mr. Either. One question Dodgers fans must be asking is, what the hell happened to Manny Ramirez? He has not been anywhere near as productive since returning from his 50 game suspension. Trouble abounds for the Dodgers in the starting rotation as Randy Wolf (that’s right Randy Wolf) will pitch Game 1. If that doesn’t scream problematic, I’m not quite sure what will.
Dodgers Player to Watch: Manny Ramirez, LF. Manny has not been Manny since returning to the Dodgers lineup in July. He is putting up very pedestrian numbers, and quite frankly the Dodgers need Manny to hit like he did last year if they are to have any chance of beating the Cardinals.

The Cardinals began this season as an afterthought, as the Chicago Cubs were expected to win the NL Central. Then a funny thing happened, the Cubs choked (shocker), Chris Carpenter was able to stay healthy, Adam Wainwright became a Cy Young contender, and they acquired Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa before the deadline. Oh and by the way, they still have the best player in the world, Albert Pujols. This is a very deep lineup with the aforementioned Pujols, Holliday, and DeRosa, plus throw in Ryan Ludwick and it is downright scary. Carpenter and Wainwright might finish one and two in the CY Young voting, and Ryan Franklin has been very dependable for most of the year.

Cardinals Player to Watch: Ryan Franklin, Closer. Franklin had been downright studly for the majority of the season, but when the calendar flipped to September, he turned in an unsightly ERA of over seven. Maybe he was just fatigued from a long year, I’m not sure, but whatever the reason, the Cardinals need there closer to be on point for October.

Prediction: Cardinals in four. The Dodgers were great most of the year, but between the rotation issues, and facing the task of having to beat the combination of Carpenter and Wainwright multiple times, I just don’t like their chances. Like the old Brooklyn Dodgers use to say; Wait Til Next Year!

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

Season series tied 5-5

The Angels have had the Yankees number over the years; in fact they are the only team to post a winning record against them over the last 10 years. The Angels play a type of game that focuses more on station to station hitting rather then the power the Yankees have. As mentioned previously the Angels have a plethora of .300 hitters in their lineup and they know how to get on base. Kendry Morales has been tremendous replacing Mark Teixeira in the run producing department. John Lackey usually pitches pretty well against the Yankees and along with the addition of Scott Kazmir, the rotation figures to give the powerful Yankee lineup fits.

Angels Player To Watch: Scott Kazmir, SP. Kazmir had control and injury issues for the better part of the season, but all that seems to have changed since he was traded to Los Angeles in August. Since becoming an Angel, Kazmir has posted an ERA of 1.73 in his six starts. Traditionally, Kazmir tends to pitch very well against the Yankees, so expect the Angels to rely on him heavily in this series.

To get over the hump and reach the World Series for the first time since 2003, the Yankees must finally beat the Angels in the playoffs. The Yankees certainly have the lineup to compete with any team on any given day, as they had six players hit over 20 homeruns. The lefties in the lineup (Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Johnny Damon) all do a very good job of hitting left handed pitching. This year’s Yankees squad also boasts a strength that previous Yankee teams did not; an effective bullpen. Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, and Phil Hughes have provided the stability to bridge a lead to shut down closer Mariano Rivera.

Yankees Player to Watch: Alex Rodriguez, 3B. I didn’t include A-Rod in the Division Series because I am under the impression that everyone can be entitled to a bad series, and three to five games is not an adequate sample size. However, Rodriguez’s playoff struggles are well documented and if he has a poor showing against the Angels it may cost the Yankees a chance to go to the World Series.

Prediction: Yankees in six. The Yankees made a huge statement by winning their last series in Los Angeles in late September, and the most important take away from that series was that they won playing small ball. October is a different beast, but I look for the Yankees to ride that momentum to a series win against the Angels.

ALCS MVP: Mark Teixeira, 1B.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies won season series 4-1

If I’ve learned anything about the Phillies over the years is that they tend to play their best when the pressure is at its highest. So while it seems they might be coming into this postseason a little sluggish, it really is because they were never challenged this year. The Phillies have three very good pitchers that were mentioned before, but their number 4 pitcher is no stiff either. Joe Blanton posted a very respectable 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA. How many teams would kill for that from their 4th starter? Also lost in all the hoopla of all the homeruns that were hit by the Phillies this year was the awesome season put together by Shane Victorino. Not only did he score 100 runs and hit over .290, he played a very good centerfield and covered a lot of ground. Also lost in the shuffle this season was Ryan Howard’s stellar improvement defensively at first base, defense will play a huge factor in this series as runs figure to be hard to come by.

Phillies Player to Watch: Ryan Howard, 1B. In addition to his improvement at first base, Howard had his typical monster offensive season, with 45 dingers, 141 RBIs, and a respectable .280 batting average. The Phillies will need that sort of production from him if they hope to beat the Cardinals this year. He will have to capitalize on the run scoring opportunities that will be presented to him, because if Carpenter and Wainwright are on, those figure to be few and far between.

The Cardinals seem like they are frequent participants in the NLCS, don’t they? They always just seem to go about their business and are very content to fly under the radar. The credit there goes to manager Tony La Russa for getting the most out of his players and pitching coach Dave Duncan who continues to work magic with supposed retreads such as Joel Pinero and Kyle Loshe. Albert Pujols is the most feared hitter in the sport, but the catalyst for the Cardinals success has been Matt Holliday. Since coming over in the trade from Oakland he has hit .353 with 55 RBIs to finally give Pujols the protection he always needed. I wouldn’t put much stock in the season series result because the two clubs haven’t faced each other since late July, and the Cardinals are a much different team now then they were back in July.

Cardinals Player to Watch: John Smoltz, SP. Remember, Carpenter and Wainwright can’t pitch every game, so it’ll be interesting to see who steps up in the other games. Smoltz was thought to be finished after he was designated for assignment by the Red Sox earlier this season, but thanks to Dave Duncan’s fountain of youth, Smoltz has pitched decently in his seven starts. I have a feeling that if given a chance to start a game in the postseason, Smoltz will be more then up for the challenge.

Prediction: Cardinals in seven. At this point both of the lineups are just about even, so it comes down to starting pitching. Carpenter and Wainwright have been stellar all season and it will be too much for the inconsistent Cole Hamels and the recently struggling Cliff Lee.

NLCS MVP: Matt Holliday, LF

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees

Did not meet this season

So hear we are at the World Series. I don’t think that many people would be shocked that I predicted the Yankees to make it this far. The Yankees have the edge when it comes to lineups and bullpen, but the Cardinals have the edge when it comes to the starting rotation, and I honestly think the Cards could ride Carpenter and Wainwright the way the Diamondbacks rode Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson back in 2001.

I would also give the edge in the managerial department to the Cardinals because La Russa is no stranger to October baseball, while this is Joe Girardi’s first time managing in the Fall Classic. The Yankees have a fair amount of players with World Series experience which should help compensate for the lack of managerial experience.

The atmosphere around these games will be awesome in that two of the best baseball cities in America will be represented in this year’s World Series.

Yankees Player to Watch: Derek Jeter, SS. October is Derek Jeter’s time to shine. He consistently makes plays and gets the timely hits just when the Yankees need them.

Cardinals Player to Watch: Albert Pujols, 1B. Baseball’s best player on the sport’s biggest stage, what’s not to love about that?

Prediction: Yankees in seven. This has all the makings to be a memorable World Series. I think having home field advantage will be huge for this series because these are two very evenly matched teams. I see the Yankees ultimately coming out ahead do to their superior hitting as well as more reliable bullpen.

World Series MVP: Alex Rodriguez (Just call it a hunch)

Closing

If you made it all the way to the end of this, I thank you for reading. Hope you enjoyed my predictions. If you think my picks suck or if you just want to make your own picks, please feel free to comment below..