An Early Line on the NBA's Atlantic Division

While making predictions before the completion of the preseason is a mugg's game. Fool-hearty at best! Some things should becoming clear.

Boston is still good! Very good! And everyone else in the Atlantic Division has gone through change.

As many notables have given this task their best shot and taken their lumps without witnessing a game, it would be unfair to not wade in with one’s own predictions facing the same disadvantages. Especially since it would be unfair to comment on another’s efforts if one isn’t prepared to take the same risks!

And besides, it’s always fun to look back after the fact to see how one did.

How will the Atlantic Division participants stack up against themselves this season?

Boston

Boston Celtics 2008-09 record: 62-20

It is very hard to see how Boston has gotten any worse. And it’s easy to remember how they chewed through the NBA before Garnett went down.

If injuries are minimal, Boston is a 70-win team.

But Boston carries the highest injury risk of any team in the league. It’s hard to see how they can get through an entire season without at least some injury issues.

At worst, Boston should still win 50, but don’t expect the worst to happen here.

Boston first place in the Atlantic 58-24.

Toronto

Toronto Raptors 2008-09 record: 33-49

It can be hard to find last year’s Raptors on this year’s squad. Twelve new players since last year. New Head Coach. Key new Assistant Coaches.

The team has depth at point guard, small forward, and power forward that they didn’t have last year. The team has a “real” starting small forward for the first time in years.

The risk the Raptors face is everything is new. A lot like the 2006-07 team, this team may get out the gates slowly. But they will be much better than last year’s team.

If everything breaks their way, look for a 52-win season. If things start out slow and the team struggles with its new identity, it could mean a 40 win season.

Toronto takes second place in the Atlantic 47-35.

Philadelphia

Philadelphia 76ers 2008-09 record: 41-41

Philadelphia couldn’t make the playoffs before Andre Miller arrived and they face a real, and unnecessary, risk of missing them again now that he’s gone.

There is no question that the 76ers have a lot of talent. What they don’t have is a point guard.

This team could actually be better than last year if they can figure out how to blend in Elton Brand (they couldn’t before) and might get to 47 wins. But Andre Miller made this team go, without him they could slide to 35.

Shouldn’t expect a good coach to let things fall apart though.

The Atlantic’s third place team, Philadelphia 43-39

New York

New York Nicks 2008-09 record: 32-50

New York spent most of last season trading away anyone who played well enough to be trade-able and didn’t have an expiring contract. Is there any reason to believe that something has changed?

Mike D’Antoni is a very good coach, and he’ll get what ever is available out of whomever he’s allowed to play.

Best case is D’Antoni drags this team up to 40 wins. Worst case could be 30. Don’t count D’Antoni out. He’ll get whatever there is to get!

New York Nicks fourth place in the Atlantic 35-47

New Jersey

New Jersey Nets 2008-09 record: 34-48

When a team trades an all-star to get a good rookie, one can’t really say they got any better and keep a straight face.

The Nets are building for the future and they have some very good young players. It’s easy to see how the Nets could become a good team next year with some trades or a free agent signing. Or maybe they develop what they have over three or more seasons.

Unfortunately this season will have more downs than ups.

Best case scenario isn’t likely to beat 38 wins. Worst case could be very bad at around 24 wins. (Going for the No. 1 pick?) It’s hard to see how this turns out well.

New Jersey Nets in fifth place 28-54

Atlantic's Best Chance of Going to the Finals

In the Atlantic, the team with the best chance of going to the NBA finals remains the Boston Celtics. They just have to get through a season relatively unscathed to get their opportunity.

It’d be shocking if anyone predicts the exact number of wins for any team, but after Boston, Toronto and then Philadelphia have the best chance at a playoff seed in the East.

My apologies to New York and New Jersey but your organizations have sent out very clear signals that their plans are starting next season.