Well guys, I hate to say I called it.
Wait...no...I didn't. (That's for you, Quenten)
When the 2008 NBA Playoffs began (it seems now like years ago), I predicted a Lakers-Celtics Finals match-up that had the C's coming out on top in six games. And now, at the beginning of June, that's what we're looking at.
The Celtics have definitely scared me (as well as really pissed me off) during the Playoffs, while the Lakers have pretty much played like I thought they would (very well), but nonetheless, here we are.
I'll break down the five starting positions and the teams' benches and coaches, before making another prediction about how this series will finish up.
POINT GUARD:
Rajon Rondo has been inconsistent during the playoffs for Boston, but who hasn't? One thing's for sure. When he's aggressive, the C's play better. On the other side of the court, Derek Fisher has been consistent for Los Angeles. Although Tony Parker kicked his ass in the Spurs series, Fisher played well in the earlier two.
If Rondo can use his size and speed to pressure Fisher all night long, he'll be able to score consistently and put the ball in Kobe's hands more often, possibly causing him to fatigue. Fisher is always a threat to get off a big shot, so Rondo will have to be aware of him at all times.
Rondo is young, but will his youth betray him? Fisher has been in big games before, so he knows what to expect. This is too close to call. ADVANTAGE: PUSH.
SHOOTING GUARD:
Ray Allen has obviously driven many Celtic fans up the wall, as my former roommate and my friends will be able to attest to. Why did he pick now to start sucking? I don't know. But recently, and against the Pistons no less, he's been able to pick up his game.
I have no reason why Allen hasn't played well, and to be honest, I don't care. Obviously Kobe is going to torch him on defense, but if Allen can make Kobe chase him and hit open jumpers, the Celtics have a much better chance.
Kobe Bryant won the MVP award this season, and he deserved it. He's playing the best ball of his career and he's also doing it unselfishly. Period. He's probably the best player in basketball right now.
If he shuts down Allen completely and stays aggressive, I don't see the Celtics standing much of a chance. I don't necessarily think this will happen, but if it does, watch out Beantown. ADV: LAKERS.
SMALL FORWARD:
Paul Pierce has truly lived up to his end of the bargain in regards to the Big Three. He, along with KG, has definitely played up to their star potential. He's fought so hard to get to the Finals, I wonder how he'll play now that he's there.
Lamar Odom was big for LA in the Spurs series, but he'll be less crucial against the Celtics. The big question is how he'll guard Pierce.
Odom might be the most important part of the Lakers' offense. If he plays well, he's their hidden weapon. If he sucks, he's their weak link.
Pierce is really hungry to win a title, and Odom is known to disappear at big times. Odom could surprise me and play really, really well, but I think Pierce will play better. ADV: CELTICS.
POWER FOWARD:
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6 months ago
lakers in 5
6 months ago
Yeah, then you woke up.
6 months ago
really man,
Lakers in 5
6 months ago
Dream on...Celtics are too flakey! Lakers in 5.
6 months ago
well I thought it was a decent article. I cant see Boston coming out and putting Ray Ray on Kobe though. Sounds alittle like sucide. Not only is Kobe much faster he can shoot right over Allen. I would expect Boston to cross match with PP and Posey checking Kobe for the most part.
from 6 months ago
I don't necessarily think Allen will guard Kobe, but I do think Kobe will guard Allen. I'll be intrigued to see the Pierce V. Kobe match up after Pierce and Posey played pretty well against LeBron.
6 months ago
rondo and fisher as a push..gotta disagree. fisher is a clown who flops non-stop. not a lick of talent. rondo is inconsistent, but fisher stinks. otherwise, well thought out and well done.
should be a great series.
6 months ago
Wait, you want Rondo to pressure D Fish so he will put the ball in Kobe's hands, so he will wear out?
If they do that in game one Kobe will have 50 points at the end of the third, and will sit out the fourth. Putting the ball in the MVP's hands and best paremeter player in the NBA as often as possible will never work.
I will give the advantage to Fisher, he will play better D, hit bigger shots and make better decisions than Rondo 65% of the time.
I would also have to say that Kobe vs. Allen is even more lopsided than phil vs Rivers...
Lamar Odom will have a monster series.
Lakers in 5 or 6 if the C's can steal a close one... With Kobe on the other side I doubt it.
from 6 months ago
Hey Kevin, thanks for reading. You don't think the Celtics will take a couple in Boston? Thats the big reason I have them winning, just because if you combine the high stakes with their play at home, it makes for a real good team.
That goes for everybody making the Lakers in 5 games calls. No love for Boston at home?! :-)
6 months ago
No Possible way Rondo will outplay Fisher. Many have forgotten about his heroics in the past, Fish has heart period and he wont allow Rondo to outplay him. I think alot of these games will be Close and it is going to come down to who can close the show better. No better finisher than Kobe Bryant, Lakers in Six.
from 2 months ago
Wrong. Bow to the Celts.
6 months ago
Well I thought it was a decent article. Jesus Shuttlesworth will not be able to check Kobe. You will see a lot of cross matching between both teams. One thing you will see in this series is that the Lakers bench is filled with athletes that have the ability to change speeds and running is not something that boston wants to do. Oh and I disagree that the point guard match up will be a push. I also disagree with the statement the Tony Parker kicked Derek Fisher's ass. I pose the question, what did the scoreboard have to say about that match up? Points scored don't always tell the story in a match up. Derek Fisher is a championship caliber player who has been in several big games, both players are 6'1" but Rondo weighs 171 lbs. and Fisher is 200 lbs. Rondo will spend a lot of time being muscled by Fisher. The guy has had to face Allen Iverson, Deron Williams and Tony Parker. There isn't anything Rondo can do that he hasn't seen or faced before. It will be a memorable series. Lakers in six games.
from 6 months ago
I agree Jeff, that's a good point about the scoreboard. Still at the end of the day I'm looking for Rondo to step up against Fisher. We'll see how it goes! Thanks for reading man.
from 6 months ago
You can't just say a scoreboard poses something for a matchup. Lebron Kicked Pierce's Bum but Pierce drank champagne last week and Lebron is golfing. Deron and Tony Parker average 26 points a game. A little ridiculous, and more so since 4 of those games were blowouts.
from 6 months ago
Redsox,
It was far from ridiculous. What you're failing to realize is that the Lakers run the triangle offense. It is completely different from a traditional offense meaning it doesn't require a point guard to dominate the ball. All of the teams the Lakers have faced in the playoffs including the celtics have a primary distributor. Derek Fisher isn't one of the primary scorers on his team whereas the other guys mentioned are. The point I was making that you didn't catch is that Derek Fisher has a tremendous amount of playoff or big game experience and has won championships in the system he is currently in and knows what he has to do to be successful. You mentioned the blowouts and yes there were some but again you failed to realize that if Tony Parker didn't score as much as he did or Deron Williams the Lakers would've had not sweep but three, and a total of 12 blowouts. I know you've got a passion for your squad and that's cool but let'snot take the comment out of context it was in regards to specifically that take that it is a push between who has the upper hand in the match up of Derek Fisher vs. Rajon Rondo. Thanks for reading Peter's article and responding to my comment. I look forward to an excellent NBA Finals series.
from 6 months ago
RedSox,
It was far from ridiculous. What you're failing to realize is that the Lakers run the triangle offense. It is completely different from a traditional offense meaning it doesn't require a point guard to dominate the ball. All of the teams the Lakers have faced in the playoffs including the celtics have a primary distributor. Derek Fisher isn't one of the primary scorers on his team whereas the other guys mentioned are. The point I was making that you didn't catch is that Derek Fisher has a tremendous amount of playoff or big game experience and has won championships in the system he is currently in and knows what he has to do to be successful. You mentioned the blowouts and yes there were some but again you failed to realize that if Tony Parker didn't score as much as he did or Deron Williams the Lakers would've had not sweep but three, and a total of 12 blowouts. I know you've got a passion for your squad and that's cool but let'snot take the comment out of context it was in regards to specifically that take that it is a push between who has the upper hand in the match up of Derek Fisher vs. Rajon Rondo. Thanks for reading Peter's article and responding to my comment. I look forward to an excellent NBA Finals series.
from 6 months ago
His heart sure helped him when Deron did a 22 point 12 assist average on him. When I think of heart, I think of horrible defense.
6 months ago
First off, your positions are wrong. Radmanovic is the small forward and Odom is the power forward. Radmanovic will start out guarding Pierce. Kobe won't spend much time guarding Allen. That job will fall to Vujacic, Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza with Kobe moving over to guard Pierce.
From today's OC Register:
"The Lakers likely will start out with Vladimir Radmanovic on Paul Pierce — with Luke Walton, Trevor Ariza and Odom as other options. But if the Lakers want to give Sasha Vujacic extensively playing time once again with the idea that Vujacic can hound Boston sharpshooter Ray Allen the way that he did San Antonio's Manu Ginobili last round, then Bryant will slide to small forward a lot and match up with Pierce.
If it's Pierce, Lakers assistant coach Tex Winter said Bryant has to "stay attached, which is hard for Kobe to do." But Winter also said: "You don't want to put Kobe on Allen. Allen has always been very effective against Kobe. Kobe just won't pay enough attention to him.""
You wanna call Rondo vs. Fish a push? Fisher's experience in the Finals gives him the immediate advantage. He doesn't have the strength to fuck with Fisher and Fisher lacks the speed to keep up with Rondo. But the Fisher/Farmar combo is enough to neutralize Rondo and give the Lakers the edge.
Andy Miller said Fisher is a clown who stinks. You serious? Sure he takes a flop ever now and then but he's got four appearances in the Finals and three rings. He was the starting PG on the 2001 Lakers, a team that went 15-1 in the Playoffs.
Kobe vs. Allen - Kobe by a large margin
Pierce vs. Radmanovic - Pierce by a large margin
KG vs. Odom - KG by a small margin
Gasol vs. Perkins - Gasol by a large margin. Perkins was the reason the Celts had so much success against the Lakers in Boston. He had a career night with 21 points and 9 rebounds but that was pre-Gasol.
Bench -
P.J. Brown, Sam Cassell, James Posey, Eddie House, Leon Powe, Glenn Davis
vs.
Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Ariza and DJ Mbenga.
I'll give the Lakers a slight edge because their bench is why they've had the highest scoring average in the playoffs. But I'll call it a push because of the Celtics experience.
Head Coach
Do I really need to write it?
One team is playing their best ball of the season and the other has lost 8 playoff games, half as many as they lost over the course of the entire season.
Lakers in 5.
from 2 months ago
Wow. I thought us Pats fans were nuts against the Giants. I need to put this on my wall of objective analysis.
God bless you, Tim Legler.
6 months ago
Celtics in 6. The Lakers are giving up 105 PPG in the playoffs and the Celtics are giving up 86.5 PPG. When has there been an NBA champ who gave up more than 100 points a night in recent history? I can't think of any myself.
- JP
from 6 months ago
The Spurs averaged 84.6 points in 5 playoff games against the Lakers.
from 6 months ago
i think you got your calculations wrong. i came out with lakers giving up 99.4 points per game, but they're scoring 105 points per game. lakers in 6.
from 6 months ago
Hi Jay/Pete,
I got the stats from here: http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/0708LAL3.HTM
That site is pretty good with statistics so I think they are right. Also, the Lakers gave up 101 during the regular season so they're defense has been a little worse throughout the playoffs over an admittedly smaller sample size, but they are still giving up over 100 for the year.
As for Peter's comment, the Spurs gave up 98.2 on defense for the entire playoffs and only averaged 98.7 on offense, which is easily the worst defensive team they've had in recent memory. I'd also point out that Ginobili being injured had something to do with them scoring less in the Lakers series, but let's face it... LA is just a better team than San Antonio.
Can anyone name the last championship team to win a title while giving up over 100 points? I don't have the answer to this, but would love to know just to know.
Thanks for the comments guys,
- JP
from 6 months ago
Jeff,
The website you've posted is for the 82 games for the regular season, not the playoffs. I'm surprised that you didn't catch that since the website clearly states "82 games". This came straight off the NBA stats page:
TEAM GAMES HME OPP
1 L.A. Lakers 15 105.86 99.46
http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable1.html?cnf=1&prd=15
from 6 months ago
No Jay, it's for the playoffs. It even says that in the name of the link itself.
Here is the link for the regular season stats:
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708LAL3.HTM
and here is the link I posted:
http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/0708LAL3.HTM
However, you are correct that the NBA.com stats are more current because I just noticed that the stats on 82games.com haven't been updated since 5/13/08. During the regular season the Lakers gave up 101 per game, and now they are giving up 99.5 over a smaller sample size. I'd still say that counts as giving up 100 points a game, whereas the Celtics defense actually got slightly better (again, over a smaller sample size).
6 months ago
I don't agree with this completely. I see it like this
PG- Rondo:Fisher adv- C's but Phil Jackson will probably play d on him like on Parker so he'll shut him down.
SG Kobe-Allen if Bowen didn't stop him ray-ray wouldn't. adv do I need to say it?
SF Pierce- Radmanović - I think Luke Walton will play d as well as Vladimir on Pierce but clearly advantage is on C's.
PF KG- Odom I think Lamar is going to play d well and slow him down but his offense is problem! Ronny Turiaf will guar him a lot.
C Gasol- Perkins- adv Lakers. off course I know problem with Gasol and stronger players but he is Obiously better player.
Coach: main advantage for the Lakers is this position so you can bet on Lakers W!!!!!
6 months ago
Here is my perspective.
The Celtics play a very similar style of basketball as the Spurs do. Both teams play great team defense, holding their opponents to less than their usual scoring averages.
The lakers beat the spurs in 5 games.
If you compare the Celtics and Spurs player for player, it will prove my point.
Kevin Garnett = Tim Duncan ( Both players can shoot from midrange, both dominate the post)
Paul Pierce = Manu Ginobli (Both players like to take it inside, can create their own shots)
Ray Allen = Steve Finley or Barry ( Both can shoot lights out)
Perkins = Oberto ( Both are big rebounders, can score off second chance points)
Here is the Big One...
Rajon Rondo = Tony Parker????????? (I dont think so, no comparison needs to be made)
If the Spurs couldnt do it, what makes anybody think that the Celtics are going to do it????
At first I though Lakers in Six, now, im thinking four or five, What do you think?
from 6 months ago
Just off of the top of my head:
1. The Celtics were the best defensive team this year by a wide margin over the Spurs.
2. Boston was better than San Antonio offensively as well.
3. The Celtics were the best team in the NBA from start to finish this year.
4. Boston has home court advantage.
from 6 months ago
Jeff,
Answer this - who is the best team in the playoffs so far?
You seem to be obsessed with the regular season, which is evident above (trying to pose regular season stats as playoff). Remember what happened to the Mavs last year?
from 6 months ago
Sure thing Jay,
Best offensive team - Lakers
Best defensive team - Celtics
It's been that way for most of, if not all of the regular season and the playoffs. I'm merely pointing out that thinking the Lakers are going to just roll over the Celtics is highly unrealistic while also revealing the fact that the Lakers haven't played a defensive team the likes of the Celtics throughout the playoffs. There is an old saying that defense wins championships, and recent history has shown that to be largely true. You'd also be correct if you pointed out that the Celtics have not played an offensive juggernaut such as the Lakers in the playoffs either, but again I can't think of another team that has won the title effectively giving up 100 points per game during the season and playoffs. The championship team usually plays far better defense than the Lakers have given the past 15-20 years of championships as an indication.
from 2 months ago
Wow, lets have some better objectivity this season.
6 months ago
Celtics in 7? Pass the bong dude! While Andrew covered most of the problems with your match ups, I'll add a little of my flavor. Even though I agree that KG and Double P have significant match up advantages, so do Kobe and Gasol the other way, maybe even bigger (in Kobe's case, definitely bigger). Fisher is a way more consistent performer under pressure at this stage than Rondo and will teach the younger guy a thing or two about playoff basketball. Vujacic, Walton, Turiaff and Farmar are clearly better than the Celtics bench and have performed more consistently in the playoffs.
Boston's Big Three? They have all been exposed a little this post season, Allen especially. He has been a real disappointment, game 6 in Detroit aside. He doesn't look like he handles or likes the pressure of the playoffs well. There have even been times when KG looked to find someone, anyone else to carry the load beside himself. Not to say that he didn't acquit himself during the run, he got his game on track and played through it. Pierce has been the only consistent battler out there night in and night out, even when he wasn't hitting he was playing hard and looking for his shot. It just never looked like Allen was when things were going bad. The big three will need to step it up (and a lot of help) for there to be any chance for the celts.
The playoffs is where the best rise to the occasion and Kobe is simply the best. He is the sun in the NBA universe right now, like it or not and he wills his teammates to play better than they may be capable of playing just by being on the floor. There is no one on the other side to match that, I think that makes all the difference in the world and this series
I think LA wins in 6, and only because KG and Pierce may some how pull a game or two out, but this could easily be an LA sweep. Could you say the same about the Celtics?
6 months ago
HAHAHAHA !
Where was Michael jordan Junior in the two regular season games ?
How comes such clutch player couldn't help his team by outplaying poor old Ray Allen...?
Oh gasol ! I forgot ! He went 3 for 13 against Perkins !
What make me laugh is the fact that I have seen this so many times ! people underestimating Rondo, Perkins and our bench to just wake up by halftime and wondering what those guys have been eating lately... lol !
Just like every other basketball fan base, we will introduce you guys with Rondo, Perkins and our bench !
Just wait 3 more days and you will get to know them at your own expense...
And DEFENSE wins championship !
Go back and read T-Mac, Lebron and Kobe comments after playing the celtics defense and you will discover that every basket the lakers will score will be hard fought !!
Whereas the three headed green monster can load it up any time when needed as demonstrated by the 3 game 5 wins and the 2 game 7 ones...
Celtics in 6. taking care of home court and stealing one in LA...
6 months ago
Hey everybody, thank you all for reading this prediction.
Although I felt like I clearly stated it in my article, I definitely can see the Lakers winning the series. I definitely don't think the Celtics are going to walk away with it. As far as people saying stuff like, "Pass the bong dude!" Is it really that hard to see the Celtics, who had the best record in the NBA this season and beat the Gasol-less Lakers pretty handily, winning the Finals? I didn't think so, but some people do.
I can't wait for the Series to start. It should be great.
from 6 months ago
Hi Peter,
I think any reasonable person would come to the same conclusion that you did, that being neither team will just roll over the other. The majority of people around the nation believe that the Lakers will win in six or seven games. The statistics indicate that the Celtics will win in six or seven games, as shown in two 10,000 simulations that I've seen (1 here and 1 on ESPN.com). The reality of it is that either team can win. It's going to be a close, hard fought series between two heavyweight teams.
Lakers vs. Celtics... does it get any better than that in basketball?
6 months ago
ya, ray ray is no big.. sasha can handle him.. i think phil will use trevor against peirce to utilize his speed and agility! but as for kg..? i think he'll hav a monster series.. fish will take rondo to school... as for the bench i think there's a slight advantage for boston bcoz of experience but still lakers should steal game 1 or game 2 in boston then win all home games.. lakers in six!
6 months ago
Mr. fref, a few points. Number 1, I'm a Knicks fan, I hate the Lakers and have ever since I was a Kid. One of my happiest sports moments was the '70 finals, watching Willis take the floor against LA, sitting on my friends screen porch. He is a Celtics fan, so I'm sure he wasn't experiencing the goosebumps that I was. I have no love for the Lakers or their front-running fans, I just think they're better than Boston.
Number 2, Since I have no stake in determining the outcome, I personally refrain from using "we" and "us" when describing teams I like.
Number 3, The regular season means nothing now. How well did Atlanta do against Boston during the year? How well did LA do against Utah? Fact is, neither answer matters, only the next 7 or so games.
I've watched enough basketball to know when I am watching a superstar and Kobe fits the bill. I think he, along with a stronger supporting cast will be the difference.
So to end this on a friendly note, if I'm wrong I'll eat it. Boston wins the series, you write an article and I'll comment on how right you were, okay?
from 6 months ago
Stove, no offense was taken. I'm grateful for the read and comment, I've just been surprised. Not at the amount of people picking the Lakers, but at the amount of people writing off the C's. The only reason I used your quote was because it was the one that I remembered the most. No harm done man!
And likely, if the Celtics lose, I'll definitely comment on an article saying I was wrong. Should be a great series.
6 months ago
I agree, Pete, it should be a good series. With how well the Lakers have been playing, I think they'll win, as I wrote in my article. But, like you, I could see it going either way. Ray Allen's play will determine a lot in the series. And I just had to attest to your Ray Allen quote driving you insane haha. That is definitely true.
from 6 months ago
Yes, this article is now complete now that the other half of G411 can attest to that fact. Ray Allen drives me off the f'ing wall. I used to not like him, now I just wish he'd play well. I don't care if he averages 50 PPG and I have to pay for every time I ragged on him. I just want him to play well.
6 months ago
Who wins will depend on whether the refs let them play or not. If they call a foul every time Kobe catches a pass like they did with LeBron, it's going to be harder for the Celtics to get anywhere. If they are allowed to play their defense, then LA has a problem.
6 months ago
lakers are not going to win the finals because the celtics all ready beat the lakers twice in the regular
season and besides kobe bryant in my mind is one of the biggest cry babies i've ever saw in case
some of you forgot he demanded they the(lakers) get rid of him and the league gives him the mvp
award give me a break the only reason why he won it was because he was kobe and they meaning the
nba did'nt want too see him bitch and complain that he did'nt win I don't see the lakers stoping the celtics defence yes the lakers will win a game or two in boston but come on who are we kidding the celtics have the best record in the nba this year they have the best defensive teams ever too play the
game and also kevin garnett won the defence player of the year award boston in game five my final score celtics 105 lakers 99 and if you don't belive the celtics can win their seventeenth championship
just go ask larry bird and he'll tell you the celtics are a better team then kobe and the lakers.
from kevin costa.
6 months ago
boston, a sweep...
6 months ago
My initial call going into the Series was Lakers in Six. However, after seeing Game One, I'm not so sure. I think the Lakers almost have to win Game Two, to have a chance to win this series.
Right now, based on what I've seen, Boston in Six.
5 months ago
Interesting in retrospect. Hope the site keeps the comments posted for a while.
5 months ago
Where is Lau? ("Lakers in 5")
Where is James? ("Really man... Lakers in 5"
Where is Megan? ("Dream on... Lakers in 5"
Where are all the "Lakers in 5" people?!!!!
At least Mitch admits after Game#1, he's not sure and say Celtics in 6. There is a difference between a lucky win by hitting last second shot to win by 1 point vs Celtics (at 50% peak efficiency) beating Lakers (at 80% peak efficiency). Celtics beat the Lakers even though they're playing comfortably with a lot of mistakes.
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