Washington 35 NOTRE DAME (-12.5) 24October 20, 2016
Washington was beaten as expected last week at Stanford, as they were in a huge letdown spot after beating USC and were playing an underrated Stanford team, but the Huskies look like the side in this game. Washington is still a below average team, rating at 0.5 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.9 yppl worse than average on defense, but the Huskies will be able to move the ball against a Notre Dame defense that's allowed 6.1 yppl to a schedule of good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team.
Notre Dame also isn't nearly as good offensively without big play receiver Michael Floyd - although RB Armando Allen will be back after missing last week's games. Floyd accumulated 358 receiving yards on just 21 passes thrown to him while the receivers filling in for Floyd opposite of Golden Tate have combined for just 117 yards on 22 passes thrown by starting quarterback Jimmy Clausen (and 2 incompletions from backup Crist), which is just 5.3 ypa.
I still have the Notre Dame rated at 0.7 yards per pass play better than average with Clausen at quarterback, but the Irish struggled last week offensively even when Clausen was in the game.
I don't think Notre Dame will struggle today, however, as Washington has a horrible defense that's given up 6.5 yppl or more in every game, but my ratings only favor the Irish by 10 1/2 points.
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