Central Mich (-7.5) 30 BUFFALO 21November 2, 2016
Central Michigan and star quarterback Dan LeFevour have been underwhelming on offense so far this season, averaging just 5.4 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. LeFevour is completing 70% of his passes, but for only 8.6 yard per completion and 5.5 yard per pass play.
Buffalo has a good pass defense (5.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team), but the Bulls are horrible against the run (5.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and I expect the Chippewas to take advantage like they did in last week's 48-21 win over Akron in which they ran for 340 yards.
What has made the Chippewas a good team has been a defense that has surrendered just 4.7 yppl and just 16.8 points per game to an average schedule of offensive team. Buffalo is just average offensively overall, but they can move the ball through the air with Zack Maynard (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) going up against a mediocre Central Michigan pass defense.
Buffalo can't run and Central Michigan is very good against the run, so Buffalo would be wise to throw the ball 50 times today.
My math model favors Central Michigan by 10 points, but I can also see Buffalo staying close if they come up with a game plan that features more pass plays than normal.
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