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CHESTNUT HILL, MA - SEPTEMBER 26:  Josh Haden #1 of the Boston College Eagles carries the ball as John Russell #51 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons defends on September 26, 2009 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Boston College defeated Wake Forest 27-24 in overtime. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Robert StollCorrespondent IOctober 2, 2009

BOSTON COLLEGE 24 Florida St. (-3.5) 23

Over/Under Total: 45.5

12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-03


Boston College has really struggled offensively, averaging just 5.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Despite their troubled attack the Eagles actually have a pretty good team thanks to a defense that has allowed 4.1 yppl (to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team).

The Eagles had a rough week defensively last week against Wake Forest (7.5 yppl), but they were great the week before that in allowing just 3.4 yppl to Clemson. Florida State has been good offensively for the season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl), but the Seminoles are also coming off a sub-par game (4.5 yppl against USF) and they're at a slight disadvantage against BC's defense today.

Surprisingly, Boston College's much maligned offense appears to have an advantage over Florida State's defense in this game. The Seminoles have given up 7.6 yppl to Miami-Florida, 8.9 yppl to BYU, and 6.4 yppl to South Florida last week and I rate their defense at 1.0 yppl worse than average after compensating for the strength of opposing offenses faced.

My math model favors Boston College to win and gives the Eagles a 59% chance of covering at +3 1/2 points but Florida State is 18-4 ATS over the years the next week after losing by 7 points or more and I'm not eager to buck that trend.

Florida State also applies to a negative 48-92-3 ATS situation, so I still would rather have the Eagles in this game despite the team trend that favors the Noles.

Read more on my website

I have 7 NCAA Best Bets and 4 NCAA Strong Opinions this week!

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