Washington is a better team than what they've shown on the scoreboard, as the Skins have out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 5.4 yppl and are only -1 in turnover margin yet have been out scored 13.3 to 16.3.
Washington has been able to move the ball but they've had trouble turning yards into points, needing 25.7 yards for every point scored, which is 5 standard deviations away from the average of 16 yards per point. In other words, it is very unlikely that the Redskins will continue to score points at such a low percentage of their yards.
Last week the Redskins out-gained Detroit 7.0 yppl to 5.3 yppl with just 1 turnover and lost the game because they only scored 14 points on their 390 total yards. The Redskins actually move the ball better than an average team and I expect them to start scoring like at least an average team. Washington will probably dominate in yards per play again this week, as Tampa Bay is 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and will now be turning to 2nd year quarterback Josh Johnson to turn things around. That is not likely to happen.
If veteran quarterback Byron Leftwich cannot make the Bucs offense reach at least decent levels than I don't see how Johnson will be any better. My ratings favor Washington by 14 1/2 points in this game with the Redskins projected to out-gain Tampa Bay 6.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl.
The difference between my ratings on the line is the highest of any game this week, but Washington applies to a negative 7-32-1 ATS situation and a negative 42-95-3 ATS situation that will keep me from making the Redskins a play.
I will, however, lean with Washington minus the points and I like the Over as well.
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