Week 4: NFL Picks and Predictions

Well, I figured I'd present this in a different format this week and see how it went. These slides, as the title so aptly states, are the Week 4 NFL selections.

Last season, I finished the year right below 80% on my picks. My picks were solid all year, and earned me mention on some the biggest sports bettors in the world websites, including Brandon Lang and J.R. Miller among others.
Now, I don't pick against the spread, I pick the straight up winners. So, keep that in mind as you look at all of these.

This has been a topsy-turvy season thus far, and i;m slowly coming out of that wicked early season slump, and hope to get to 12 wins this week.

Record from Previous Week (3): 11-5

Record coming into Week (4): 31-17 (64.5%)

Overall record: 31-17

Let's get it on!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins

The Redskins somehow allowed the Lions to come out of sellar against them last week. I was surprised, because quite honestly, Washington had the more talented team of the 2. The Skins' running game is better, their passing game is better and defensively, the Skins are better. But, apparently they never got that memo.

Detroit neutralized them in virtually every facet of that game, and looked like they were much more prepared than Jim Zorn's group.

This week should be different. Jim Zorn's seat is getting a little warmer week by week, and last weeks loss to the Lion's has almost caused a sizzling it's so hot..... I expect the the Bucs to play them tough, but right now, especially with an inexperienced QB coming in, and a running game in shambles, they can't beat the Skins.

Verdict: The Redskins redeem themselves from last week and play well against Tampa at home.

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

This one isn't a tough one to call. The Giants are the superior team, and they certainly know it. Kansas City doesn't stand much of a chance in this one the way I see it. Erratic QB play, sub-par RB play and Dwayne Bowe is out.....ouch.

K.C. is in for a long day at home, and I expect the Giants to use brandon Jacobs A LOT in this game. They want to get in, score a couple, run the ball and the clock and get out healthy, and I think that's exactly what they'll do.

Verdict: Giants win in blowout fashion against the lowly Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is likely going to be without starter Matt Hasselbeck again this week, and with Seneca Wallace under center, they could be in for a long day. TJ Houshmandzadeh has been just ok this season, and Julius Jones and Edgerrin James are about as average as you get at the RB spot.

Conversely, Peyton Manning is coming off a stellar game against the Cardinals in which he threw for 379 yards and 4TD's. People knock the Colts running game, but the fact of the matter is, as often as they run the screen, they don't need a true running game, and they are averaging over 4 per carry this season.

Peyton Manning is going to decimate that Seahawks D and pick them apart with relative ease.

Verdict: Indy gets an easy W at home, in the Oil Can.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

The Battle for Ohio happens again this week. Historically, these have been VERY high scoring games, and actually very entertaining too. That said, I see nothing of the sort this week.

Cleveland is now, without a doubt, the WORST team in the NFL. Offensively, they've scored only 1 TD in their last 9 games and rank in at #32...or D. F. L. (Dead F'n Last) in the league. And defensively, they're among the worst in the league, ranking in at #30. The Browns couldn't stop or score for that matter, on a High School team right now. Manigini has clearly lost his team, and for some reason, he thinks Derek Anderson is the answer at QB? WTF??? Exactly what I said friend.

The Browns are going to get a heaping dose of #32 for the Bengals, that'd be Cedric Benson, the guy who was my breakout player this season (see my website at www.sports-uncut.com). Then Carson and Ocho will attack that weak secondary that has more holes than a block of Swiss.

Sorry Browns fans, his one won't be close.

Verdict: Cincinnati wins in dominating fashion.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Easy there Lions fans.....geez.

The bottom line is the Lions beat a pretty bad looking, at least right now, Redskins team that was just flat and not ready to go. I think the Skins are a much better team than they showed last week. Conversely, I also think the Lions are a better team than they showed last week.

Chicago is at home, and when the bears are at home, they're pretty tough. Not to mention, the emergence of Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett has been exactly what this team's needed. I think this week, we'll finally hear a little noise from that kid named Forte and you may even see Olsen get in on the action.

Chicago's D is a source for concern for Bears fans and they are banged up, but they're deep enough to get past the Lions this week. Stafford will face pressure all day and the blitz packages he sees from Da' Bears will come from virtually every angle there is.

Verdict: Bears get a W at home

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville got a huge win last week in a game that most though was going to be a losing affair. MJD finally showed the promise that fantasy owners have been looking for all year, and exploded going for 100+ and 3TD's. It was HUGE day for the Jags.

This week could be a little different though. Tennessee lost yet again, pushing them to 0-3, and honestly, they looked really good in that game. Defensively, they're not attacking the way most thought they would, and it's obvious that they're missing Mr. Haynesworth, but, fear not Titan fans...I don't see them going 0-4.

This week Chris Johnson faces one of the more average run defenses in the league, allowing over 100 yards and 1 score per game. Johnson will get loose several times with his speed and in the end, they'll use him and LenWhale to run the clock.

Verdict: Titans get a road W

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans

Look, the Raiders suck....almost as bad as the Browns, and I really don't see how they win this game. Especially with Russell at the helm and McFadden looking like he was the 3rd best RB drafted out of the Arkansas backfield, behind Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis a couple of years ago.

Matt Schaub will connect with either Daniels, Johnson or Walter several times, hell, maybe even multiple times throughout this game, and Steve Slaton may even get himself some.

Verdict: Texans win at home...easily

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is going to be a great game, and I expect it to be a pretty close game as well.

There's no doubt that Tom Brady isn't completely back from his knee, and the Patriots are banged up on both sides of the ball. Welker has missed 2 straight, Randy Moss is nursing a back injury and others are feeling the bite of the injury bug as well.

Baltimore on the other hand looks very good right now, sporting that #2 offense around. Joe Flacco has been more than anyone could have expected, especially being a small school guy. And, Willis McGahee has possibly regained his starting RB role, ahead of promising youngster Ray Rice.

All that said, this is going to come down to Defense. The Patriots #6 overall D will be trying to match what Baltimore's #7 overall D is doing in this game. Where I think this game will be won is through the air. Right now, B-More is in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, and since the Pats don't run a whole lot, that means the ball will be in the air.

Philip Rivers torched B-More a couple of weeks back for 400+ yards, and I think with a healthy Welker, a running game that will take just enough pressure off Tom Terrific, and Randy Moss playing, B-more is in trouble

Verdict: The "Dynamic Duo" connects again and the Pats win a close game at home

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Notice in the photo that Ronnie Brown is hoping over some Bills defender that sorely missed??

Well, I think we can bet that's going to happen again this week. Ronnie Brown is clearly healed from his ACL injury and over the first 3 weeks has looked great, rushing for 254 yards and 2 scores while adding another 75 yards in receiving. His performnce in the "Wildcat" set is spectacular.

Buffalo is damaged goods right now. Half of their starting DB's and LB's are out with injuries. They will get TO involved this week, and Fred Jackson, right now at least, is the best RB they've got, but that won't be enough.

With an inexperience QB in Chad Henne playing this week, look for the Dolphins to run and run and run some more. Ricky and Ronnie will be used heavily.

Verdict: Miami get a W at home.

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints

There are soooo many things you can say about this game, for both teams, so, I'm gonna keep it short and sweet.

The Jet's have a solid D, as do the Saints. Right now though, the Saints have the better rushing & passing attack, and I expect Drew Brees and his elite group of WR's to simply out match the Jets in that phase of the game.

The Jets just don't have enough to cover everyone that the Saints have running routes.

Verdict: Drew Brees gets a win at home in the Saints' closest game of the year.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

The man pictured above (Glen Coffee) is going to run over, around and through that terrible Rams defense all day long, especially late in the game to run the time out.

I almost feel bad for Steven Jackson. I personally believe that S-Jax is one of, if not the single most talented RB's in the NFL. He runs with agility, he sees the holes and he catches the ball out of the backfield better than just about anyone else. Yet, he's overshadowed because of the horrid teams he's played on. Imagine S-Jax basically anywhere else.....scary.

The Niners are at home and will probably try to play keep away from the Rams a lot in this game. Shaun Hill will do just enough to not lose and San Frans D makes S-jax 100+ yard performance merely a blip on the screen.

Verdict: San Fran wins this one handily.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos

Living in Denver, I can tell you this game is not only a HOT topic here, but also a touchy one.

Denver is 3-0 right now, coming off consecutive wins against the #31 (Oakland) and #32 (Cleveland) ranked offenses in the NFL. So, it's not like they've been challenged in that regard. People point to what Cincy has done since Week 1 and say "See that proves the Broncos are legit on D" and to that all I can say is this....Cincy looked HORRID in that game and were clearly out of sync, and Denvr dodged a bullet with the "Immaculate Deflection".

The cake walk for Denver of the last 2 weeks ends on Sunday as they host Tony Romo and the #3 ranked offense of the Dallas Cowboys, which by the way, should have Marion Barber back.

I've broken this game down seven ways from Sunday, and all I can see is the glaring weakness the Broncos have in defending the short passing game. Which will make Witten, Bennett and Williams oft targeted players. Not to mention, Dallas average 197.3 yards per game rushing, and while Tashard Choice is no Felix Jones, he's certainly a good RB and Dallas' O-Line is HUGE.

I think at the end of the day, Kyle Orton is going to be picked once and he'll likely taste turf twice, as Dallas' D has solid pass rush abilities. In doing that Dallas will take him and the Broncos out of this game.

One other thing....not many teams' fans travel better than the Cowboys, and estimates right now are the upwards on 20,000 Cowboys fans will be at that game....making the crowd less advantageous for the Broncs.

Verdict: Denver loses their first game in a close one agains Dallas.

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I happen to think that Ben Roethlisberger is one of the most overrated QB's that I've ever seen, and while I can admit he's cluth, I still don't know that he's that good.

That said, Pittsburgh is tough at home, and this week there's an outside chance that Troy Polamalu will be back as he's not ruled himself out for playing this week. Reports say he feel pretty good, and has looked ok on the practice field. If that happens, Pittsburgh gets back their heart and soul, and that alone could push the Steelrs over the top.

San Diego is banged up, and while it looks like LT is coming back, and Philip Rivers is becoming an elite QB, I don't know if I think they can get it done at the Ketchup Bottle (Heinz Field) against that D in that environment.

Verdict: Pittsburgh wins at home and gets to 2-2

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings - MNF

The story lines are going to tell you this is all about Brett Favre, but, the fact of the matter is that it's about winning the game, not Fav-ruh's first game against the Pack.

This should be a great game, and I think ultimately for the Vikings O, it comes down to Adrian Peterson, as it always does. Favre hasn't had a back this talented in the backfield since Dorsey Levens was in his prime. So, no doubt Peterson helps open things up, and favre will use that this week, and will probably find Harvin for a score.

Green Bay has the difficult task of facing the #4 defense in the league right now, and that wicked good Defensive Backfield. I think Rodgers will have a solid day, but, it could be tough sledding for that team as a whole.

The environment is going to be rawkus, and the Vikings faithful are going to be in full throat for this one. I look for that to be key in this game.

Verdict: Minny wins at home on the legs of Adrian Peterson.