Detroit finally won a game last week, but don't be fooled by their win over the Redskins. The Lions were out-gained 5.3 yards per play to 7.0 yppl by Washington and other teams are not going to be as inept in the redzone as the Redskins are. For the season Detroit has averaged only 4.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) while allowing a horrendous 6.6 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team).
Chicago has out-gained their tougher than average schedule (Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle) 5.3 yppl to 4.8 yppl and my ratings favor the Bears by 15 points in this game while the math using this year's games only would favor them by 17 1/2 points.
Unfortunately, Chicago applies to a negative 72-147-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while Detroit applies to a 44-14-3 ATS week 4 angle.
With the math favoring Chicago and the situation strongly favoring Detroit I'll have to pass this game.
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