Baltimore has looked very good so far on both sides of the ball, but dominating Kansas city and Cleveland at home is expected and their win at San Diego isn't really impressive given that the Ravens were out-gained 5.4 yards per play to 7.1 yppl by the Chargers.
It's pretty obvious that Baltimore is improved offensively in quarterback Joe Flacco's second season but their pass defense has been poor (6.8 yards per pass play allowed) and Tom Brady should be able to exploit that weakness in this game. The Patriots are worse than average defensively as expected, allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive unit, so Baltimore should move the ball as well.
My ratings favor Baltimore by 2 points, but the Ravens apply to a negative 25-57 ATS road letdown situation following last week's easy win over the Browns.
I'll have to pass this one.
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