Free Agent Adjustments: Doug Davis

Josh LevittSenior Analyst ISeptember 30, 2009

LOS ANGELES - AUGUST 31:   Pitcher Doug Davis #49 of the Arizona Diamondbacks throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 31, 2009 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California.    (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

(For the last few weeks, I've been profiling some of the best free agents on the market this winter. At the end of each piece, I made a prediction regarding the type of contract the player could be in line to see. Obviously, these predictions have to be fluid because the season is still in progress. So which players have seen their value change over the past few weeks? Let's take a look at the impending free agency of Doug Davis )

Initial Prediction: (Three years/$27 million)

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New Prediction: (Three years/$21 million)

What Changed: Randy Wolf. Yes after evaluating the free agency of Randy Wolf, I felt that there was no way in hell Davis was going to come close to three years/$27 million. That's the kind of contract that I'd expect Wolf to get in this market.

Davis is a very good pitcher, and might wind up being a better value than Wolf over time, but Randy Wolf's 2009 season has catapulted him into a different level contractually than Davis. Davis will still do nicely on the free agent market, but I think my initial estimate overshot his true value a bit.

Thoughts?

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